Sunshine Coast R5 | 1400m BM68
Fri 13 Feb | 8:38pm | 10r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #5 FIFTH FORCE @ $7.00 - 0.2u EW VALUE: #7 MONASTERY @ $19.00 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fifth Force | 7.00 | 68.7 | 15% | +5.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 0.2% |
| 11 | Nightcapped | 4.20 | 67.0 | 16% | -14.8% | WATCH | - |
| 13 | Echo Hunter | 12.00 | 65.2 | 8% | -4.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Maple Door | 8.00 | 64.9 | 11% | -12.0% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Monastery | 19.00 | 60.6 | 7% | +33.0% | VALUE | 0.5% |
| 2 | Sunlord | 4.20 | 60.7 | 12% | -37.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fifth Force | 1 | 7.00 | 87 | GOOD | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 68.7 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 11 | Nightcapped | 6 | 4.20 | 82 | GOOD | 74 | 0% | Neutral | 67.0 | WATCH |
| 13 | Echo Hunter | 4 | 12.00 | 80 | OK | 72 | 0% | Neutral | 65.2 | WATCH |
| 6 | Maple Door | 2 | 8.00 | 78 | OK | 72 | 0% | Neutral | 64.9 | WATCH |
| 7 | Monastery | 11 | 19.00 | 76 | OK | 72 | 0% | Neutral | 60.6 | VALUE |
| 2 | Sunlord | 9 | 4.20 | 77 | POOR | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 60.7 | PASS |
| 8 | Out Of Aces | 12 | 5.50 | 80 | POOR | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 58.4 | PASS |
| 9 | The Torque Factor | 5 | 12.00 | 70 | OK | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 52.0 | PASS |
| 1 | Calico Jack | 8 | 19.00 | 73 | OK | 82 | 0% | Neutral | 48.5 | PASS |
| 3 | Sizzling Gal | 14 | 12.00 | 65 | POOR | 78 | 0% | Neutral | 42.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Fifth Force posted the best figure (87) off a fast 82.34s at Gold Coast, 5pts clear of the next tier. Nightcapped (82) and Out Of Aces/Echo Hunter (80) form the second tier. Pace: MODERATE shape expected. No confirmed leaders, several on-pace types (#5, #11, #13) should sit handy. Suits mid-runners. Class: Race is BM68 provincial. Calico Jack and Sunlord drop from BM78 but form there was poor. Fifth Force fits at this level after winning BM65. Maple Door rises from CL4 win. Bias: No significant track bias detected (LOW confidence). Rail position not specified. Neutral assessment applied.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Fifth Force is the top selection on speed figures alone - 87 is clear best in the field off a 4th beaten just 0.22L at Gold Coast in BM68 company. Barrier 1 is ideal in a 10-horse field, and the 56-day break is manageable with two trials showing competence. Place specialist score of 1.39 (50% career place rate, 10 placings from 20 starts) makes EW the preferred bet type at $7.00 with EW EV of +3.7%.
Monastery at $19 represents the strongest edge in the race (+33%). While recent form reads poorly (7th of 14), he has 3 wins from 8 starts at 1400m and won at Sunshine Coast 1600m in Aug 2025. The price compensates for the risk, and career place consistency (52.6%) adds EW appeal with a strong +27.3% EW EV.
KEY RISKS
- Fifth Force: 56 days between runs - fitness query despite trial evidence
- Monastery: Wide barrier (11) and poor recent form; last win was BM58 level (Aug 2025)
- Market: Joint favourites Sunlord ($4.20) and Nightcapped ($4.20) are both underlays on our model - Sunlord returning from 104 days off as a stayer dropping to 1400m, Nightcapped stepping up from BM65 class
- Weather: Rain forecast could shift track to Soft, which would benefit Calico Jack (5w from 15 soft) and Monastery (heavy track winner) but hurt Out Of Aces (0w from 3 soft)
PLACE PROBABILITIES
| # | Horse | Win% | Place% | Place Odds | Place EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fifth Force | 15% | 41.0% | $2.38 | +2.5% |
| 11 | Nightcapped | 16% | 44.2% | $1.70 | -24.9% |
| 2 | Sunlord | 12% | 36.2% | $1.70 | -38.5% |
| 8 | Out Of Aces | 9% | 27.8% | $2.00 | -44.3% |
| 7 | Monastery | 7% | 22.1% | $4.50 | -22.8% |
| 13 | Echo Hunter | 8% | 22.6% | $3.40 | -23.2% |
#5 Fifth Force: kelly: 0.2% | ew_ev: +3.7% | score: 68.7/100 #7 Monastery: kelly: 0.5% | ew_ev: +27.3% | score: 60.6/100