Sunshine Coast R8 | 1800m CL2
Fri 13 Feb | 10:08pm | 7r (3 scr) | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
NO BET - All contenders are underlays at current market prices. No genuine edge detected in this weak CL2 field where no runner has won a race.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Fair | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spot The Aussie | $2.35 | 30% | $3.33 | -29.5% | PASS | - |
| 3 | Galway Flyer | $3.00 | 22% | $4.55 | -34.0% | PASS | - |
| 10 | Promises Made | $4.00 | 18% | $5.56 | -28.0% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Evade The Game | $5.50 | 14% | $7.14 | -23.0% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Cooloundra | $19.00 | 7% | $14.29 | +33.0% | WATCH | 0.45% |
| 1 | Argent Empyrean | $101 | 5% | $20.00 | - | PASS | - |
| 2 | Fergus En Marche | $101 | 4% | $25.00 | - | PASS | - |
FIELD TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Pace | Conn | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spot The Aussie | 10 | $2.35 | 7-3-7-x-7-3 | MDN | OK | Vandyke/Thompson | PASS |
| 3 | Galway Flyer | 7 | $3.00 | 4-8-7-6 | MDN | OK | Waller/Thornton | PASS |
| 10 | Promises Made | 2 | $4.00 | 8-4 | MDN | OK | Waller/Bayliss | PASS |
| 7 | Evade The Game | 1 | $5.50 | 5-4-3-x-7-4 | MDN | OK | Jenkins/Du Plessis | PASS |
| 5 | Cooloundra | 9 | $19.00 | 7 | MDN | ? | Vandyke/Hamblin | WATCH |
| 1 | Argent Empyrean | 5 | $101 | 8-7-x-5 | MDN | POOR | Stabe/Busuttin | PASS |
| 2 | Fergus En Marche | 3 | $101 | 6-x | MDN | POOR | Hill/Thorburn | PASS |
Scratchings: #4 Irish Accolade, #8 Just Beauty, #9 Miss Chamonix
ANALYSIS
Speed: No standout speed figures in this field. Spot The Aussie ran closest (5.1L off at Ipswich 1700m soft) but still well beaten. Every runner is a maiden.
Pace: MODERATE expected. With only 7 runners and no confirmed on-pacers, likely a genuinely-run affair at moderate tempo. Barrier 1 (Evade The Game) and barrier 2 (Promises Made) can slot in without pressure.
Class: Extremely weak CL2 field. Zero winners among all 7 runners. Combined career record: 0 wins from 52 starts. This is effectively a 1800m maiden with prize money of just $442.
Bias: Neutral track bias (LOW confidence). Rail position not specified. Good 4 surface with rain around - monitor for potential soft upgrade which would favour Spot The Aussie (2 places from 3 soft starts).
CONTENDER NOTES
#6 Spot The Aussie ($2.35 FAV): Best form credentials - 3rd at Ipswich 1700m (soft, 5.1L off) last start and 2nd at Deagon trial. Vandyke/Thompson combination adds appeal. BUT: 0/5 career, stepping to 1800m first time, wide barrier 10 in 7-runner field, and $2.35 implies 42.5% vs our 30% estimate. Significant underlay.
#3 Galway Flyer ($3.00): Waller-trained, previously raced in stronger Sydney maidens (Newcastle, Canterbury). Moving to weaker QLD provincial but still hasn’t placed in 4 starts. 6th of 14 at Newcastle 1850m is a form line but $3.00 is too short for a 22% chance.
#10 Promises Made ($4.00): Another Waller runner, only 2 career starts. 4th at Doomben 1650m (soft, 4L off) was OK. Stepping to 1800m untested at distance. Barrier 2 helps. Upside runner but $4.00 implies 25% vs 18% estimate.
#7 Evade The Game ($5.50): Best draw (barrier 1), 4 Sunshine Coast starts (0-1-0), knows the track. 4th last start at 1600m here (10.3L off) but 3rd two starts back at 1600m. Stepping to 1800m is the query. Fair odds around $7.14.
#5 Cooloundra ($19): Only 1 career start (7th Ipswich 1350m soft, 13.1L). Vandyke-trained 3yo stepping to 1800m second-up. Speculative but $19 offers some mathematical edge if 7% win probability is accurate. Too little data to be confident.
KEY RISKS
- Entire field are maidens - no proven winners, form unreliable, high variance race
- Market is compressed - favorite at $2.35 in a maiden where every runner has failed to win, poor risk-reward
- Weather variable - rain around could change track condition and reshuffle form lines
NO BET | All underlays at current prices | 7-runner maiden field, no edge