Eagle Farm R1 | 1000m 2YO HCP
Sat 14 Feb | 12:28pm | 9r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #9 ZANDARI @ $23.00 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pembrey | $2.00 | 72 | 38% | -24.0% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Swift Dragon | $2.70 | 63 | 28% | -24.4% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Oregon Coast | $7.00 | 58 | 14% | -2.0% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Zandari | $23.00 | 53 | 6% | +38.0% | VALUE | 0.43% |
| 6 | It’sall About Mary | $21.00 | 52 | 5% | +5.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Another Champers | $27.00 | 50 | 4% | +8.0% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pembrey | 9 | $2.00 | 82 | GOOD | 65 | -5% | Hot | 72 | WATCH |
| 1 | Swift Dragon | 1 | $2.70 | 70 | GOOD | 58 | +2% | Neutral | 63 | WATCH |
| 3 | Oregon Coast | 2 | $7.00 | 62 | OK | 68 | +2% | Neutral | 58 | WATCH |
| 9 | Zandari | 8 | $23.00 | 65 | GOOD | 52 | -3% | Neutral | 53 | VALUE |
| 6 | It’sall About Mary | 3 | $21.00 | 60 | OK | 50 | +3% | Neutral | 52 | WATCH |
| 4 | Another Champers | 5 | $27.00 | 55 | OK | 50 | 0% | Neutral | 50 | WATCH |
| 7 | Madame Doubtfire | 6 | $26.00 | 58 | OK | 48 | 0% | Neutral | 50 | WATCH |
| 2 | Apostle | 7 | $31.00 | 50 | POOR | 50 | -1% | Cold | 47 | PASS |
| 5 | Ella’s Legacy | 4 | $71.00 | 42 | POOR | 42 | +1% | Cold | 40 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Pembrey posted the best raw trial figures with a dominant 3.86L win at Doomben (840m, 49.57s) and 4.5L at Deagon; Swift Dragon’s 3 wins from 3 include a 9.29L trial romp but at shorter distances and weaker tracks. Pace: FAST tempo likely with Pembrey, Swift Dragon, and Zandari all showing on-speed tendencies from trial positions - genuine tempo should set up for on-pacers who can sustain. Class: Oregon Coast has the strongest class reference (6th in Widden Stakes at Rosehill against metro 2yo fillies); the rest are untested or provincial-only. Big step up for all runners at Eagle Farm metro. Bias: Soft 5 with rain - no significant style or barrier bias detected (LOW confidence). Inside barriers marginally favored in wet conditions historically.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Zandari wins the value equation at $23. She won the Eagle Farm 850m trial on Feb 3 (52.76s) beating It’sall About Mary (0.13L 2nd) and Madame Doubtfire (0.13L 3rd) - all three are in this field. At $23, the market has dramatically separated Zandari from the top two (Pembrey $2, Swift Dragon $2.70) despite having course trial form at this track. The EW EV is +48.3% with place probability of 24.4%. While Pembrey is clearly the most talented runner here (dominant margins suggest above-average ability), $2.00 offers no value for a 2yo debutante on a Soft 5 at 1000m - too many unknowns remain. The each-way play on Zandari captures value from the market’s over-reaction to the top two.
KEY RISKS
- No jockey listed yet for Zandari - engagement quality unknown (could signal connections lack confidence)
- Trial-only form is unreliable; 850m trial to 1000m race on Soft 5 is a significant step up
- Pembrey may simply be too good - dominant margins suggest genuine class edge over this field
EW ANALYSIS
| Horse | Win% | Place% | Win EV | Place EV | EW EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zandari | 6% | 24.4% | +38.0% | +58.6% | +48.3% | STRONG EW VALUE |
| It’sall About Mary | 5% | 22.0% | +5.0% | +32.0% | +18.5% | STRONG EW VALUE |
MARKET NOTES
- Market percentage: 122.6% (standard overround for 9-runner field)
- Two-horse market: Pembrey ($2.00) and Swift Dragon ($2.70) account for 87% implied probability
- Value sits with the outsiders - the market is pricing the top two as certainties in a 2yo debut race
- Data quality: MEDIUM - limited form (mostly trial-only), no sectional data available
kelly: 0.43% | ev: +$0.48/u | score: 53/100 | source: sportsbetform.com.au