Eagle Farm R2 | 1000m BM78
Sat 14 Feb | 1:03pm | 8r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #3 PORT ERIN @ $10.00 - 0.56u EW VALUE: #2 FIND YOUR OWN @ $12.00 - 0.45u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Larado | 1.85 | 72.0 | 38% | -29.7% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Royal Commodore | 5.50 | 55.0 | 18% | -1.0% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Port Erin | 10.00 | 52.0 | 12% | +20.0% | VALUE | 0.56% |
| 5 | Vindicta | 10.00 | 48.0 | 11% | +10.0% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Find Your Own | 12.00 | 47.0 | 10% | +20.0% | VALUE | 0.45% |
| 7 | Moonhaven | 8.00 | 35.0 | 8% | -36.0% | PASS | - |
| 4 | Trapeze Warrior | 23.00 | 28.0 | 5% | +15.0% | PASS | - |
| 10 | Star Rapper | 13.00 | 25.0 | 5% | -35.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Wet | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Larado | 5 | 1.85 | 90 | GOOD | 76>82 | 1/1 | Neutral | 72 | WATCH |
| 6 | Royal Commodore | 2 | 5.50 | 82 | GOOD | 82 | 2/3 | Neutral | 55 | WATCH |
| 3 | Port Erin | 6 | 10.00 | 83 | OK | 82 | 1/6 | Neutral | 52 | VALUE |
| 5 | Vindicta | 8 | 10.00 | 78 | OK | 82 | 1/3 | Neutral | 48 | WATCH |
| 2 | Find Your Own | 1 | 12.00 | 80 | GOOD | 82 | 2/6 | Neutral | 47 | VALUE |
| 7 | Moonhaven | 4 | 8.00 | 70 | POOR | 82 | 2/13 | Neutral | 35 | PASS |
| 4 | Trapeze Warrior | 9 | 23.00 | 75 | OK | 82 | 1/1 | Neutral | 28 | PASS |
| 10 | Star Rapper | 10 | 13.00 | 68 | POOR | 72>82 | 1/5 | Neutral | 25 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Larado (90) holds the best figure by 7pts, recorded at Eagle Farm 1000m. Port Erin (83) and Royal Commodore (82) next best; gap narrows if Larado regresses off a sharp class rise from BM70 to BM78. Pace: FAST expected - Find Your Own and Larado are natural on-pace runners likely to press forward. Vindicta and Port Erin can stalk and pounce. Soft 5 track may blunt early speed and bring closers into play. Class: Larado rising sharply from BM70 (won narrowly 0.36L) to BM78 for first time. Port Erin won BM75 at Eagle Farm, consistent at this level. Find Your Own won BM78 at Eagle Farm on Heavy (Dec 2024) - proven at class. Royal Commodore won BM82 return at Grafton, progressive. Bias: Neutral bias with LOW confidence. Soft 5 track with rain - inside barriers may gain advantage with cover on the fence.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Port Erin (#3) at $10 offers strong each-way value. He’s a proven place specialist (10 placings from 16 starts, specialist score 2.17) with solid Eagle Farm 1000m form (won BM75 in 56.42). Recent form reads 1-2-2-1 in actual races, and while he was 6th at Sunshine Coast last start in a BM78, that was only 0.41L off the winner. The soft track isn’t ideal (1/6 on soft) but he’s placed on it. At $10 with EW EV of +16.9%, he represents the best value in the race.
Find Your Own (#2) at $12 is the secondary play. Won BM78 at Eagle Farm on Heavy (59.77), so handles wet ground. Barrier 1 gives him the fence run in the soft. Coming off a 55-day break but won a trial by 4L at Gold Coast. His Eagle Farm record (3 wins from 6 starts) is outstanding. EW EV of +14.4% with +20% win edge.
KEY RISKS
- Larado is clearly the class runner with superior speed figures and could win this easily despite being short - a dominant $1.85 favourite for good reason (3 wins from 4 starts, progressive)
- Port Erin’s soft track record (1/6) is a concern on Soft 5 with rain - his best form is on Good ground
- Find Your Own returns from 55 days off and his BM78 race form (6th, 8th, 11th at Eagle Farm) is poor - the win was on Heavy which is quite different to Soft 5
PLACE SPECIALIST NOTES
- Port Erin: STRONG SPECIALIST (2.17x) - 62.5% place rate vs 28.8% expected
- Royal Commodore: STRONG SPECIALIST (1.65x) - 71.4% place rate vs 43.2% expected
- Both warrant each-way consideration at their prices
#3 Port Erin EW: kelly 0.56% | ew_ev: +16.9% | score: 52/100 #2 Find Your Own EW: kelly 0.45% | ew_ev: +14.4% | score: 47/100