Eagle Farm R4 | 1200m BM70
Sat 14 Feb | 2:13pm | 13r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #4 BLUE SPINEL @ $10 - 1.5u EW VALUE: #13 LUNAR EIGHT @ $8 - 1.0u EW VALUE: #1 STANISLAUS @ $18 - 1.5u EW (Place Specialist)
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Blue Spinel | $10 | 59.0 | 12% | +20% | VALUE | 1.5u EW |
| 13 | Lunar Eight | $8 | 48.8 | 14% | +12% | VALUE | 1.0u EW |
| 1 | Stanislaus | $18 | 65.0 | 7% | +26% | VALUE | 1.5u EW |
| 12 | Savagery Vibe | $2.70 | - | 28% | -24% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Dream Lantern | $4.60 | - | 13% | -40% | PASS | - |
| 9 | Just Precious | $10 | 36.8 | 9% | -10% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Wet | Form | Class | Pace | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanislaus | 4 | $18 | 1/8 | 9-4-5-1-2-3 | BM70= | OK | VALUE |
| 2 | Superalloy | 12 | $23 | 1/9 | x-8-8-8 | BM78v | POOR | PASS |
| 3 | Runwiththetide | 9 | $14 | 0/13 | 4-7-3-4-5-x | BM70= | OK | PASS |
| 4 | Blue Spinel | 11 | $10 | 3/13 | 3-6-2-3-5-2 | BM78v | GOOD | VALUE |
| 6 | Cheval Chic | 10 | $15 | 3/10 | 5-8-6-x-3-9 | BM78v | OK | PASS |
| 7 | Dream Lantern | 3 | $4.60 | 1/6 | 7-6-x-1-4-4 | BM70= | OK | PASS |
| 8 | Enterprise Atk | 1 | $34 | 0/3 | x-3-5-2-8-9 | BM78v | OK | PASS |
| 9 | Just Precious | 7 | $10 | 1/6 | 1-2-4-5-x-4 | BM70= | GOOD | WATCH |
| 10 | That’s An Extra | 8 | $34 | 0/3 | x-4-4-1-3-2 | BM65^ | POOR | PASS |
| 11 | Apollo Ten | 2 | $31 | 0/7 | 3-4-x-1-4-2 | BM65^ | OK | PASS |
| 12 | Savagery Vibe | 6 | $2.70 | 1/4 | 4-2-7-x-3-3 | CL2^ | GOOD | PASS |
| 13 | Lunar Eight | 5 | $8 | 1/2 | 1-1-x-7-x-2 | CL3^ | GOOD | VALUE |
| 14 | Mr Wandji | 13 | $81 | 3/12 | 3-2-2-1-3-3 | BM60^ | POOR | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: No clear standout on times; Blue Spinel and Lunar Eight have the sharpest recent closing figures relative to class. Pace: MODERATE - Dream Lantern and Savagery Vibe likely to press, giving closers a chance. Blue Spinel and Stanislaus can sit midfield and finish. Class: Savagery Vibe making biggest class jump (CL2 -> BM70 metro), untested. Blue Spinel dropping from BM78, proven at level. Lunar Eight rising but on a winning streak. Bias: No significant track bias detected (LOW confidence). Soft 5 with rain - genuine wet track. Inside barriers slightly advantaged in heavy going.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Blue Spinel is the standout EW play. Best wet-track record in the field (3 wins, 8 places from 13 soft starts), dropping from BM78 where she placed at Eagle Farm, and Tony Gollan knows the track (3/15 EF). The $10 price offers +20% edge with 32% place probability. Wide barrier (11) is the concern but she can settle midfield.
Lunar Eight is the rising star - back-to-back wins (Gold Coast 850m, GC 1000m) before a strong 2nd at 1200m last start. Light weight (56.5kg) and Toby Edmonds in form. Place specialist score of 2.28 supports the EW angle at $8.
Stanislaus is the each-way roughie via Place Specialist path (career 52% place rate, specialist score 3.54). The $18 offers +26% win edge and +5% place EV. Barrier 4 ideal in soft ground.
KEY RISKS
- Blue Spinel wide barrier (11) in soft ground - may get posted 3-wide without cover
- Savagery Vibe ($2.70 fav) is the clear class horse if she handles the BM70 jump and wet track - only 1 start on soft for 1 win
- Rain may worsen track to Heavy - would further advantage Cheval Chic (3/4 heavy) and reduce field to genuine wet trackers
blue spinel: ev +12.0% EW | lunar eight: ev +5.5% EW | stanislaus: ev +15.5% EW