Eagle Farm R5 | 1200m BM60
Sat 14 Feb | 2:48pm | 9r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
EW VALUE: #7 HERMAN SAID @ $7.50 - 1.0u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dragonne Rouge | $3.50 | 45.9 | 25% | -12.5% | VALUE | - |
| 8 | Mrs Goldberg | $4.60 | 40.1 | 18% | -17.2% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Herman Said | $7.50 | 54.9 | 14% | +5.0% | VALUE | 1.0u |
| 9 | Shadwell Lane | $6.00 | 34.4 | 12% | -28.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Ekhidna | $12.00 | 47.4 | 10% | +20.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Brutal Miss | $8.00 | 28.0 | 8% | -36.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Wet | Form | Class | C/D | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dragonne Rouge | 5 | $3.50 | 3/6 | 11x | 76 | 1/2 | 45.9 | VALUE |
| 8 | Mrs Goldberg | 7 | $4.60 | 1/1 | 1x4 | 65 | 0/0 | 40.1 | WATCH |
| 7 | Herman Said | 4 | $7.50 | 2/4 | x35 | 65 | 0/0 | 54.9 | VALUE |
| 9 | Shadwell Lane | 6 | $6.00 | 1/2 | 221 | 62 | 0/3 | 34.4 | WATCH |
| 4 | Ekhidna | 2 | $12.00 | 1/2 | 7x1 | 60 | 0/1 | 47.4 | WATCH |
| 6 | Brutal Miss | 9 | $8.00 | 1/1 | 18 | 55 | 0/0 | 28.0 | PASS |
| 2 | Blitzburg | 1 | $12.00 | 0/2 | x5x | 70 | 0/2 | 22.0 | PASS |
| 10 | The Pool Boy | 8 | $14.00 | 1/1 | x24 | 62 | 0/2 | 20.0 | PASS |
| 11 | Captain Bull | 10 | $11.00 | 0/0 | 1 | 55 | 0/0 | 18.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Dragonne Rouge has the best figures from her 1200m win at Eagle Farm on heavy (71.56s). Mrs Goldberg’s Sunshine Coast 1200m win (70.84s) is solid but on good ground. Pace: MODERATE - Dragonne Rouge and Mrs Goldberg likely to press forward, with Herman Said and Shadwell Lane sitting midfield. No genuine leader makes this a tactical affair. Class: Dragonne Rouge has the highest class rating (BM78/Stakes experience), dropping back to BM60. Mrs Goldberg progressive but untested at this metro level. Bias: Soft 5 with rain - conditions suit wet-trackers. Dragonne Rouge (3/6 wet wins) and Herman Said (2/4 wet wins, all wins on soft) are key beneficiaries.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Herman Said represents the best each-way value in the race at $7.50. He is a STRONG PLACE SPECIALIST (score 2.1) with a 71% career placing rate (5/7 starts). His two wins have both come on soft ground, making the Soft 5 conditions ideal. While he steps up from provincial class to Eagle Farm metro, his consistent placings and wet-track affinity give him a high probability of finishing in the top 3 (41%). The EW EV of +6.3% qualifies via Path A.
Dragonne Rouge is the deserved favourite with superior class and wet form, but at $3.50 she offers no value (-12.5% edge). She won the Calaway Gal at Eagle Farm on heavy and has genuine stakes pedigree, but her last two runs (8th, 11th) in better class suggest she may need this run to peak.
KEY RISKS
- Herman Said has never raced at Eagle Farm - unknown course suitability at metro level
- Dragonne Rouge may be unders at $3.50 but is clearly the class runner and could win easily if she bounces back
ew_ev: +6.3% | place_prob: 41% | specialist: 2.1 | score: 54.9/100