Eagle Farm R7 | 1400m Listed
Sat 14 Feb | 4:02pm | 11r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
EW VALUE: #7 FREE CARRY @ $8.00 - 1.0u E/W
Qualifies Path A (Value Overlay) + Path B (Place Specialist). EW EV: +7.0%.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | John Rambo | $3.00 | 41.3 | 25% | -25% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Last Command | $4.00 | 38.0 | 18% | -28% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Green Fly | $5.00 | 32.0 | 12% | -40% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Free Carry | $8.00 | 58.4 | 13% | +4% | VALUE | 1.0u |
| 12 | Super Duck | $10.00 | 30.0 | 9% | -10% | PASS | - |
| 9 | Tonneofgrit | $11.00 | 28.0 | 8% | -12% | PASS | - |
| 10 | Shihab | $13.00 | 27.0 | 7% | -9% | PASS | - |
FIELD TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Wet | C/D | Pace | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Fly | 11 | $5 | 5-4-6-8-x | 5/24 (21%) | 0/0 C, 4/13 D | OK | WATCH |
| 3 | Age Of Kings | 9 | $67 | 5-7-2-x | 0/5 (0%) | 0/0 C, 2/5 D | POOR | PASS |
| 4 | John Rambo | 2 | $3 | 4-x-4-2-3 | 4/9 (44%) | 2/8 C, 0/2 D | GOOD | WATCH |
| 5 | Queen Air | 8 | $23 | x-6-6-6-9 | 2/11 (18%) | 1/4 C, 0/6 D | POOR | PASS |
| 7 | Free Carry | 5 | $8 | 5-2-6-2-6 | 4/11 (36%) | 1/5 C, 2/4 D | GOOD | VALUE |
| 8 | Lady Shotgun | 7 | $71 | 7-x-5-7-8 | 2/17 (12%) | 0/4 C, 3/13 D | OK | PASS |
| 9 | Tonneofgrit | 1 | $11 | 3-7-7-x-1 | 3/13 (23%) | 0/2 C, 3/19 D | OK | PASS |
| 10 | Shihab | 4 | $13 | x-4-4-9-8 | 5/16 (31%) | 1/3 C, 3/13 D | OK | PASS |
| 11 | Last Command | 12 | $4 | 9-2-x-7-2 | 1/4 (25%) | 1/1 C, 1/4 D | OK | WATCH |
| 12 | Super Duck | 6 | $10 | 4-6-x-6-5 | 4/15 (27%) | 0/8 C, 4/15 D | OK | PASS |
| 13 | Watermelon | 3 | $91 | 1-2-5-8-x | 2/12 (17%) | 1/4 C, 1/8 D | OK | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Green Fly has the best class form (BM100/Listed level) but has been plain. Free Carry’s Eagle Farm 1400m Soft win (83.66s, by 2.52L) is the standout recent Soft track performance at this distance. Pace: MODERATE expected. John Rambo and Free Carry likely to sit on pace from good barriers. No dominant leader, suits on-pace runners. Class: This is Listed grade. John Rambo and Last Command are rising through the classes; Green Fly has the best class pedigree but trending down. Free Carry stepping up from BM78 but has shown quality. Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Soft 5 with rain - track may deteriorate further, favouring proven wet-trackers.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Free Carry is the each-way selection at $8. Won impressively at Eagle Farm 1400m on Soft (BM78, by 2.52L) and is a proven soft track performer (4/11 wins, 36%). Career place rate of 90% (18/20) makes him a strong place specialist (score 1.92). Good barrier (5), Gollan-trained with course knowledge, and 1400m distance suits (2/4 wins). The 90 days off is the main concern but trialled well and Gollan horses often fire fresh. EW EV of +7.0% with place EV +10.0% makes this a clear value play at the odds.
No Best Bet in this race - the favourite John Rambo ($3) has poor value despite strong wet form, as he’s untested at 1400m (0/2) and the price doesn’t compensate. Last Command ($4) rising sharply from CL4 to Listed with a wide barrier.
KEY RISKS
- Free Carry 90 days between runs - fitness query despite trial
- Class rise from BM78 to Listed is significant (needs career-best)
- Deteriorating track may become Heavy - changes the race dynamic
kelly: 1.0u EW | ew_ev: +7.0% | score: 58.4/100