Eagle Farm R9 | 1000m BM90
Sat 14 Feb | 5:22pm | 9r | Soft 6 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #3 VODKA MARTINI @ $6.50 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Edge | Fair | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tiger Tie | $2.90 | 24% | -30.4% | $4.17 | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Vodka Martini | $6.50 | 17% | +10.5% | $5.88 | VALUE | 0.48% |
| 8 | Power Of The Brave | $4.50 | 15% | -32.5% | $6.67 | PASS | - |
| 1 | Steady Ready | $5.00 | 16% | -20.0% | $6.25 | PASS | - |
| 6 | Manolo Bling | $7.50 | 12% | -10.0% | $8.33 | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Wanda Rox | $9.50 | 10% | -5.0% | $10.00 | PASS | - |
| 4 | Chakra Boy | $21.00 | 4% | -16.0% | $25.00 | PASS | - |
| 5 | Shalaa’s Moment | $26.00 | 3% | -22.0% | $33.33 | PASS | - |
| 10 | Two Ya Got | $67.00 | 1% | -33.0% | $100.00 | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Speed | Pace | Wet | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tiger Tie | 1 | $2.90 | 95 | GOOD | 3/9 | Neutral | 68 | WATCH |
| 3 | Vodka Martini | 4 | $6.50 | 89 | GOOD | 4/10 | Neutral | 52 | VALUE |
| 8 | Power Of Brave | 7 | $4.50 | 90 | OK | 2/10 | Neutral | 45 | WATCH |
| 1 | Steady Ready | 6 | $5.00 | 82 | OK | 0/6 | Neutral | 40 | PASS |
| 6 | Manolo Bling | 5 | $7.50 | 85 | OK | 2/6 | +ve | 42 | WATCH |
| 2 | Wanda Rox | 8 | $9.50 | 87 | OK | 1/4 | Neutral | 38 | PASS |
| 4 | Chakra Boy | 10 | $21.00 | 78 | POOR | 3/14 | Neutral | 30 | PASS |
| 5 | Shalaa’s Moment | 3 | $26.00 | 75 | OK | 3/9 | Neutral | 22 | PASS |
| 10 | Two Ya Got | 9 | $67.00 | 70 | POOR | 2/10 | Neutral | 15 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Tiger Tie posted the fastest raw time (56.26s) winning this race two weeks ago; Vodka Martini ran 2nd that day 1.75L off, Power Of The Brave has strong Randwick 56.85s figure. Pace: FAST scenario likely - Tiger Tie, Steady Ready, and Vodka Martini all show early speed at 1000m. Suits on-pace runners from inside barriers. Tiger Tie (bar 1) and Vodka Martini (bar 4) well placed. Class: All runners at or near BM90 level. Manolo Bling rising from BM74 win at Pakenham - class test. Power Of The Brave stepping up from BM78 wins. Tiger Tie won this identical race (BM90 EF 1000m) last start. Bias: Neutral bias confidence LOW. Soft 6 with rain - inside barriers typically advantaged on wet Eagle Farm tracks.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Vodka Martini presents the only genuine value in this race at $6.50. Proven wet-tracker (4/10 on soft, 40% strike rate vs 38% overall) with strong place specialist credentials (score 1.52). Won the Open Quality at Eagle Farm 1000m on soft (58.07s) and ran a solid 2nd in this identical race two weeks ago. The EW proposition is compelling: +11.1% combined EW EV with 47% place probability. Tiger Tie is the likely winner but $2.90 is too short given the Soft 6 query (limited soft form, zero heavy starts).
KEY RISKS
- Tiger Tie is clearly the best horse on raw ability - if the Soft 6 doesn’t inconvenience him, he wins comfortably
- Vodka Martini’s last-start 2nd was on Good ground; needs to replicate that form on a deteriorating surface
EW VALUE DETAIL
| Horse | Place% | Specialist | EW EV | Place EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vodka Martini | 47.0% | 1.52 | +11.1% | +11.6% | STRONG EW |
| Manolo Bling | 34.8% | 2.08 | -9.3% | -8.7% | NO VALUE |
| Wanda Rox | 30.8% | 2.83 | -4.4% | -3.7% | NO VALUE |
kelly: 0.48% | ev: +$0.11/u | score: 52.0/100 source: sportsbetform.com.au | data quality: HIGH