Flemington R2 | 2000m BM78
Sat 14 Feb | 12:35pm | 16r | Good 4
ACTION
NO BET - Market fully efficient. Fiorenot is the clear top-rated runner but $3.40 offers no edge (fair odds $4.17). No EW value qualifies at current prices despite strong place specialist profiles.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fiorenot | 3.40 | 42.5 | 24% | -18.4% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | Taka Speed | 6.00 | 38.0 | 14% | -16.0% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Trapalanda | 7.50 | 36.5 | 11% | -17.5% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Tarvue | 11.00 | 33.0 | 8% | -12.0% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Sunsets | 8.00 | 28.0 | 8% | -36.0% | PASS | - |
| 13 | Extreme Virtue | 15.00 | 27.0 | 6% | -10.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Pace | PlcSpec | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fiorenot | 9 | 3.40 | x2321 | Rise | OK | 1.95 | 42.5 | WATCH |
| 8 | Taka Speed | 14 | 6.00 | 27x11 | BIG RISE | OK | 3.13 | 38.0 | WATCH |
| 11 | Trapalanda | 3 | 7.50 | 4x222 | Rise | GOOD | 3.31 | 36.5 | WATCH |
| 10 | Tarvue | 5 | 11.00 | 72126 | Drop | OK | - | 33.0 | WATCH |
| 1 | Chasing Aphrodite | 6 | 17.00 | x4222 | Same | OK | - | 30.0 | WATCH |
| 5 | Sunsets | 4 | 8.00 | 89x33 | Same | OK | - | 28.0 | PASS |
| 13 | Extreme Virtue | 15 | 15.00 | x4549 | Rise | POOR | - | 27.0 | PASS |
| 4 | Flamin’ Romans | 2 | 17.00 | 134x8 | Same | OK | - | 26.0 | PASS |
| 15 | Seafall | 7 | 21.00 | x7593 | Same | OK | - | 25.0 | PASS |
| 12 | Unseen Ruler | 1 | 27.00 | 8x433 | Same | GOOD | - | 24.0 | PASS |
| 9 | Otago | 8 | 17.00 | x6458 | Rise | OK | - | 23.0 | PASS |
| 3 | My Brothers Keeper | 11 | 27.00 | 7x636 | Same | OK | - | 22.0 | PASS |
| 14 | Georgie Get Mad | 12 | 26.00 | 4936x | Same | OK | - | 20.0 | PASS |
| 2 | Night Endeavor | 13 | 81.00 | x58xx | Drop | POOR | - | 12.0 | PASS |
| 7 | Double Cherry | 10 | 91.00 | 29xxx | Same | POOR | - | 10.0 | PASS |
| 16 | Balinor | 16 | 126.00 | 24x7x | Same | POOR | - | 8.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Limited time data for direct comparison; Fiorenot’s 107.83s at 1800m Flemington (BM70) is the standout figure, though untested at 2000m. Taka Speed improving rapidly but figures achieved at lower grades (BM62-66). Pace: MODERATE shape expected. No dominant leaders; Tarvue and Chasing Aphrodite likely to settle near the speed. Should suit on-pace runners with mid-race fitness. 16-runner field adds pressure. Class: Fiorenot rising from BM70 after B2B wins - trajectory is strong but jumping 2 grades. Taka Speed faces a massive class rise (BM66 to BM78) with zero course/distance experience. Tarvue drops from BM100 which is the best class indicator. Bias: Neutral track bias (LOW confidence). Good 4 surface, no significant rail or style advantages detected.
PLACE SPECIALIST ANALYSIS
Three strong place specialists identified in this field:
- #11 Trapalanda (3.31 score) - 69.2% career place rate vs 20.9% expected. Place EV +5% at boosted prob. EW score 44.3 (just below VALUE).
- #8 Taka Speed (3.13 score) - 83.3% career place rate vs 26.6% expected. Just 6 starts limits sample but consistency is elite.
- #6 Fiorenot (1.95 score) - 88.9% career place rate vs 45.6% expected. Already reflected in short price.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Fiorenot is clearly the best horse in this race - 2 from 2 at Flemington, 89% place rate, rising through grades with authority under J Childs for the in-form Dabernig stable. However, at $3.40 in a 16-runner BM78, the price offers zero mathematical edge (fair odds $4.17). The market has this horse correctly assessed.
The place specialist profiles of Trapalanda ($7.50) and Taka Speed ($6.00) are intriguing but fall short of VALUE threshold (EW scores 44.3 and 47.0 respectively). If Fiorenot drifts to $4.00+ or Trapalanda to $9.00+, re-evaluate.
KEY RISKS
- Fiorenot untested at 2000m (only raced 2040m once for 4th) - staying query at short price
- Taka Speed facing massive class jump (BM66 to BM78) with wide barrier (14) in 16-runner field
- Competitive BM78 with 16 runners creates high variance - genuine upset potential
kelly: 0% | ev: -18.4%/u | score: 42.5/100 | verdict: NO BET - market efficient