Flemington R5 | 1200m BM94
Sat 14 Feb | 2:20pm | 9r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #4 NDOLA @ $4.80 - 0.5u EW VALUE: #8 FISSION @ $8.50 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ndola | 4.80 | 56.2 | 22% | +5.6% | VALUE | 0.37% |
| 8 | Fission | 8.50 | 52.8 | 13% | +10.5% | VALUE | 0.35% |
| 7 | Rue De Royale | 2.70 | 48.5 | 28% | -19.0% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Great Maximus | 7.00 | 38.4 | 12% | -9.0% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Behaviour | 8.00 | 35.6 | 10% | -20.0% | PASS | - |
| 3 | Extratwo | 11.00 | 28.3 | 7% | -12.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Plc% | Bias | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pounding | 3 | 61 | 25858 | Drop | 43% | 0 | 12.5 | PASS |
| 2 | Highlights | 6 | 27 | x459x | Drop | 48% | 0 | 15.8 | PASS |
| 3 | Extratwo | 1 | 11 | 57626 | Rise | 39% | 0 | 28.3 | PASS |
| 4 | Ndola | 5 | 4.80 | 11372 | Rise | 73% | 0 | 56.2 | VALUE |
| 5 | Great Maximus | 8 | 7.00 | 35553 | Rise | 58% | 0 | 38.4 | WATCH |
| 6 | Modown | 9 | 12 | 5x954 | Rise | 50% | 0 | 24.1 | PASS |
| 7 | Rue De Royale | 2 | 2.70 | x3513 | Rise | 52% | 0 | 48.5 | WATCH |
| 8 | Fission | 4 | 8.50 | 62951 | Rise | 49% | 0 | 52.8 | VALUE |
| 9 | Behaviour | 7 | 8.00 | 7x354 | Rise | 40% | 0 | 35.6 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Fission posted the fastest Flemington 1200m time (68.78s) two starts back at BM84 level; Rue De Royale won in 69.65s at lower BM70 class. Ndola’s best 1200m form is from provincial tracks but progressing sharply. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected - no confirmed leader. Ndola and Fission likely sit midfield; Rue De Royale can roll forward from barrier 2. Shape suits on-pace runners. Class: All bar Pounding and Highlights are rising in class to BM94. Ndola (33% career win rate, 73% place) handles class rises best. Fission won BM74 two back and placed 3rd in BM84 last start - progressive. Rue De Royale’s only win was at BM70, significant jump to BM94. Bias: Neutral bias at Flemington on Good 4, low confidence. Rain around may not impact the track rating.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Ndola is the standout EW proposition. Rising 4yo with a 33% win rate and 73% place rate (place specialist score 1.39). Two consecutive 2nd placings at BM84, the 7th in the V Gold Bullion (soft track, stronger field) is forgivable. Drops back to 1200m where he has 3 wins from 5 starts. The $4.80 offers +5.6% edge with strong EW EV of +11.3%.
Fission offers the best raw edge at +10.5%. Strong place specialist (score 2.02 - 63% place rate vs 31% expected). Won at Flemington 1200m two back (BM74) then placed 3rd in BM84. The class rise to BM94 is a query but the 54kg weight helps and barrier 4 is ideal. EW EV +9.2%.
Rue De Royale is the clear favourite at $2.70 but represents an UNDERLAY at -19% edge. Only win at BM70 level - massive class jump to BM94. Jamie Kah booking and barrier 2 are the positives but the price doesn’t compensate for the risk.
KEY RISKS
- Ndola stepping back to 1200m after racing over 1400m - may need further than the sprint trip
- Fission rising two classes (BM74 → BM94) in one step, untested at this level
- Rain forecast could shift track to Soft, altering form lines (Ndola 0/5 on soft)
EW VALUE DETAIL
| Horse | Win% | Place% | Win EV | Place EV | EW EV | Specialist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ndola | 22% | 60.1% | +5.6% | +17.0% | +11.3% | 1.39 |
| Fission | 13% | 37.5% | +10.5% | +7.8% | +9.2% | 2.02 |
EXPERT CONSENSUS
Rue De Royale heavily favoured by tipsters (~75% support). Ndola, Great Maximus, and Fission secondary picks. Market respects Rue De Royale but our model finds value underneath.
ndola: kelly 0.37% | ev: +$0.11/u | score: 56.2/100 fission: kelly 0.35% | ev: +$0.09/u | score: 52.8/100