Flemington R6 | 2500m BM100
Sat 14 Feb | 2:55pm | 11r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #11 STEEL RUN @ $12.00 - 0.5u EW
EW value driven: +2.4% EW EV, place specialist score 2.08x, proven Flemington 2500m winner.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Saint George | $2.60 | 72 | 30% | -22.0% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Stylish Secret | $7.50 | 55 | 13% | -2.5% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Steel Run | $12.00 | 48.5 | 8% | -4.0% | VALUE (EW) | 0.5u |
| 1 | Berkeley Square | $10.00 | 46 | 10% | 0.0% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Newfoundland | $6.00 | 44 | 12% | -28.0% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Jenni’s Meadow | $8.50 | 43 | 10% | -15.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Scary | $9.00 | 41 | 9% | -19.0% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Dictionary | $27.00 | 38 | 6% | n/a | PASS | - |
| 8 | Paradise Storm | $26.00 | 32 | 5% | n/a | PASS | - |
| 6 | Garachico | $23.00 | 28 | 4% | n/a | PASS | - |
| 5 | Ardakan | $151.00 | 15 | 1% | n/a | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Pace | PlcSpec | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berkeley Square | 7 | $10 | 43513 | BM100 | OK | 2.08x | WATCH |
| 2 | Saint George | 6 | $2.60 | x2261 | BM100 | GOOD | 1.76x | WATCH |
| 3 | Newfoundland | 2 | $6 | 325x5 | BM88 | OK | 1.82x | PASS |
| 4 | Scary | 3 | $9 | 27x42 | BM100 | OK | N/A | WATCH |
| 5 | Ardakan | 11 | $151 | 947x4 | BM100 | POOR | N/A | PASS |
| 6 | Garachico | 1 | $23 | x746 | BM84 | OK | N/A | PASS |
| 7 | Jenni’s Meadow | 4 | $8.50 | 78732 | BM100 | OK | N/A | WATCH |
| 8 | Paradise Storm | 10 | $26 | 411x4 | BM78 | OK | N/A | PASS |
| 9 | Stylish Secret | 9 | $7.50 | x7531 | BM84 | GOOD | 1.76x | WATCH |
| 10 | Dictionary | 5 | $27 | 59551 | BM78 | OK | N/A | PASS |
| 11 | Steel Run | 8 | $12 | x592x | BM78 | OK | 2.08x | VALUE |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Saint George posted the best figure winning BM100 Flemington 2000m in 121.37s, clearly the class runner. Steel Run won the 2500m at Flemington in July 2024 (157.47s) which gives a track/distance edge.
Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. No dominant leaders - Berkeley Square and Saint George likely to sit midfield. Scary and Newfoundland may press forward from inside gates. Shape suits on-pace runners getting a soft lead.
Class: Saint George and Berkeley Square are proven BM100 performers. Stylish Secret (won BM84 last, up in class) and Steel Run (BM78 grade, big class rise) are the risers. Newfoundland has Adelaide Cup 2nd (Listed class) but inconsistent.
Bias: Neutral track bias with LOW confidence. No style or barrier advantage detected.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Steel Run (#11, $12 EW) is the value play in an otherwise tough race dominated by Saint George. Steel Run has the crucial track/distance credential - a 1.75L win at Flemington over 2500m (July 2024 Open Quality). He’s a strong place specialist (50% career place rate, 2.08x specialist score) and gets in on minimum weight (54kg). The BM78 to BM100 class rise is the concern, but at $12 the EW proposition returns +2.4% expected value. Michael Dee is a solid stayer jockey.
Saint George is the deserved favourite and most likely winner, but at $2.60 (implied 38.5%) vs our assessed 30% win probability, he’s a clear underlay (-22% edge). He won well last start but steps up from 2000m to 2500m for the first time, and the 27-day gap with only a jumpout in between adds slight question marks.
KEY RISKS
- Steel Run class rise: Stepping from BM78 to BM100 is a significant jump - only one prior metro placing (5th Flemington BM84)
- Saint George stamina: Untested beyond 2025m but breeding and racing style suggest 2500m within range - if he handles the trip, the race is his to lose
kelly: 0.5u EW | ew_ev: +2.4% | score: 48.5/100