Flemington R9 | 1400m BM88
Sat 14 Feb | 4:50pm | 11r | Good 4 | Rain | 9C
ACTION
NO BET - Dominant favourite Sixties is a clear underlay at $1.80 (fair odds $2.22, edge -19%). No other runner offers sufficient value to justify a position. Marginal EW on Romantic Encounter (+0.6%) insufficient to act.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Fair | Edge | Place% | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sixties | $1.80 | 45% | $2.22 | -19.0% | 78% | PASS |
| 9 | Asakura | $5.00 | 14% | $7.14 | -30.0% | 44% | PASS |
| 1 | West Of Swindon | $8.00 | 12% | $8.33 | -4.0% | 35% | WATCH |
| 6 | Romantic Encounter | $14.00 | 7% | $14.29 | -2.0% | 24% | WATCH |
| 5 | Officiate | $19.00 | 5% | $20.00 | -5.0% | 20% | PASS |
| 8 | Express Class | $19.00 | 4% | $25.00 | -24.0% | 16% | PASS |
| 10 | Loud Charlie | $19.00 | 4% | $25.00 | -24.0% | 16% | PASS |
| 4 | Bingi | $41.00 | 2.5% | $40.00 | +2.5% | 10% | PASS |
| 11 | Wetumpka | $23.00 | 3% | $33.33 | -31.0% | 12% | PASS |
| 12 | Beyond Question | $51.00 | 2% | $50.00 | +2.0% | 8% | PASS |
| 13 | Earthing | $61.00 | 1.5% | $66.67 | -8.5% | 5% | PASS |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | Form | Class | C/D | Going | Conn | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sixties | 11 | 58.5 | 1-5-1-5-1 | Ming Dynasty (L) winner | 0/0, 1/2 | All tracks | Waller/Lane | Class best, wide draw only query |
| 9 | Asakura | 8 | 56.0 | 2-1-1 | BM66 winner | 0/0, 0/0 | Good only | Freedman/Yendall | Massive class rise, untested metro |
| 1 | West Of Swindon | 9 | 58.5 | 4-2-1-9-4 | Carbine Club 4th (G3) | 0/2, 0/1 | Good preferred | Maher/Stockdale | 104 days off, trialled, class fits |
| 6 | Romantic Enc. | 4 | 56.0 | 1-2-x-9 | Stutt Stakes 2nd (L) | 0/0, 0/0 | Heavy winner | Hayes/Stackhouse | Good barrier, first at 1400m |
| 5 | Officiate | 5 | 56.0 | x-2-1-3-x | Super Impose 3rd (L) | 0/1, 0/1 | Handles wet | Waller/B Melham | 111 days off, untried 1400m |
| 8 | Express Class | 10 | 56.0 | 1-3-6-9-6 | Vain Stakes 3rd | 0/0, 0/1 | Soft preferred | G Moloney/P Moloney | Recent form below par |
| 10 | Loud Charlie | 12 | 56.0 | 3-1 | Maiden winner | 0/0, 0/0 | Good only | Kennewell/Mott | Lightly raced, huge class rise |
| 4 | Bingi | 13 | 57.0 | 1-3-1-7-7 | BM64 level | 0/0, 0/1 | Soft preferred | Moody/Spain | 140 days off, wide barrier |
| 11 | Wetumpka | 1 | 56.0 | 2-2-4-2 | Maiden | 0/0, 0/0 | Limited | Gelagotis/Allen | Rail draw, still a maiden |
| 12 | Beyond Question | 3 | 56.0 | 1 | Country maiden W | 0/0, 0/0 | Soft only | Kearney/Coffey | 1 start, enormous class rise |
| 13 | Earthing | 6 | 56.0 | 6 | Moe maiden 6th | 0/0, 0/0 | Unknown | Moody/Nolen | 1 start, outclassed |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Sixties has the best time figures - 69.09s for 1200m (BM88 Rosehill, 1.68L margin) and Ming Dynasty winner at 1400m in 83.26s. Clear top-rated on raw times. West Of Swindon next best via Exford Plate/Carbine Club performances but hasn’t raced in 104 days.
Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. Asakura and Loud Charlie likely to roll forward from mid-draws. Sixties has tactical versatility (settled 3rd-5th range). West Of Swindon has sat on-pace in better races. Shape should suit Sixties who can track the speed and kick.
Class: Sixties is the clear class standout - Ming Dynasty Stakes (Listed) winner who then won a BM88 by 1.68L. West Of Swindon competed in Carbine Club (G3) and Caulfield Guineas (G1). Asakura rising sharply from BM66 provincial level. Most others have significant class queries at BM88 metro.
Bias: Neutral track bias (LOW confidence). Good 4 rail position not specified. Rain forecast may see track deteriorate - would favour Sixties (1W/1P from 1 heavy start, handles all ground) and Bingi (2W/3P from 3 soft starts). Could disadvantage Asakura (untested wet).
KEY RISKS
- Sixties’ wide barrier (11) in an 11-runner field - needs luck from out wide, though Damian Lane is capable of overcoming this
- Rain may deteriorate the track beyond Good 4, reshuffling wet-track form credentials
EW ASSESSMENT
| # | Horse | Odds | EW EV | Place EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Of Swindon | $8.00 | -3.9% | -3.8% | NO VALUE |
| 6 | Romantic Encounter | $14.00 | +0.6% | +3.3% | MARGINAL |
| 5 | Officiate | $19.00 | +2.5% | +10.0% | MARGINAL |
Romantic Encounter and Officiate show marginal EW figures but confidence is too low to recommend action. Both have fitness/distance unknowns.
no bet | ev: n/a | score: n/a | source: sportsbetform.com.au