Morphettville R2 | 2250m BM66
Sat 14 Feb | 1:22pm | 12r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #1 BACK ME UP BENNY @ $9.50 - 0.7u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Back Me Up Benny | 9.50 | 66.0 | 13% | +23.5% | STRONG_VALUE | 0.7% |
| 3 | Mozu Marcassin | 3.60 | 48.0 | 18% | -35.2% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Coorong Tycoon | 4.50 | 42.0 | 14% | -37.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Smother | 4.80 | 44.0 | 12% | -42.4% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Dolcemente | 9.50 | 35.0 | 10% | -5.0% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Classy Claret | 8.50 | 34.0 | 9% | -23.5% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Dist | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Back Me Up Benny | 2 | 9.50 | 6-7-7-3-4-1 | 76 | GOOD | 0 | Neutral | 66.0 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 2 | Coorong Tycoon | 11 | 4.50 | 1-x-2-4-2 | 76 | OK | 0 | Hot | 42.0 | WATCH |
| 3 | Mozu Marcassin | 10 | 3.60 | 6-x-4-4-2 | 80 | GOOD | 0 | Hot | 48.0 | WATCH |
| 4 | Smother | 4 | 4.80 | 2-5-x-1-3-2 | 72 | OK | 0 | Neutral | 44.0 | WATCH |
| 5 | Classy Claret | 12 | 8.50 | 4-5-3-1-5-1 | 68 | POOR | 0 | Neutral | 34.0 | WATCH |
| 6 | Savsonic | 5 | 10.00 | 5-5-8-1 | 72 | POOR | 0 | Neutral | 32.0 | WATCH |
| 8 | Spangled Sipper | 8 | 51.00 | x-9-5-4-6 | 70 | POOR | 0 | Neutral | 18.0 | PASS |
| 9 | Dolcemente | 3 | 9.50 | 7-9-8-3-9 | 76 | POOR | 0 | Neutral | 35.0 | WATCH |
| 10 | The Art Of Flying | 7 | 126.00 | 7-9-6-6 | 66 | POOR | 0 | Neutral | 12.0 | PASS |
| 11 | Harley’n’rose | 13 | 19.00 | 7-2-6-9-5-8 | 70 | POOR | 0 | Neutral | 22.0 | PASS |
| 12 | The True Believer | 6 | 46.00 | x-5-5-4 | 64 | OK | 0 | Neutral | 24.0 | PASS |
| 13 | Estefan | 1 | 46.00 | 6-7-3-3 | 62 | OK | 0 | Neutral | 20.0 | PASS |
Holly’s Star (#7) SCRATCHED
ANALYSIS
Speed: Mozu Marcassin has the highest class figures from VIC metro (BM80/84 placed), but Back Me Up Benny’s Morphettville 2000m win (124.8s) is the best local speed reference at this distance range. Pace: MODERATE shape expected - Back Me Up Benny and Smother likely to race on-pace from inside draws; Mozu Marcassin and Coorong Tycoon from wide barriers need to settle back. Favours on-pace runners. Class: Mozu Marcassin dropping from VIC BM66/BM80 level to SA BM66 - class advantage. Back Me Up Benny rising from 0-64 win but has placed at BM66 level before. Bias: Neutral track bias (LOW confidence). No significant barrier or style bias detected. Inside draws marginally preferred at 2250m due to first turn position.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Back Me Up Benny represents clear each-way value at $9.50 with a +23.5% edge and STRONG EW VALUE rating (Path A: odds >= $6, EW EV +21.1%, place prob 31.7%). Won last start at Morphettville over 2000m on Good track by 0.68L, now stepping up to 2250m with a proven distance record (1 win from 3 starts at 2000m+). Barrier 2 is a significant advantage in a 12-horse field at 2250m, allowing him to settle in a forward position without using energy. Place specialist score of 1.61 (STRONG) with career place rate of 44% confirms each-way suitability. The market has overreacted to the class rise from 0-64 to BM66.
KEY RISKS
- Class rise from 0-64 to BM66 - has only placed (never won) at BM66 level previously
- Inconsistent form pattern (6-7-7-3-4-1) - the win was preceded by three poor runs
EACH-WAY ANALYSIS
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win EV | +23.5% |
| Place EV | +18.8% |
| EW EV | +21.1% |
| Place Prob | 31.7% |
| Place Specialist | 1.61 (STRONG) |
| EW Path | A (Value Overlay) |
| EW Rating | STRONG EW VALUE |
EXPERT TIPS
- Mozu Marcassin (#3): Tipped as best bet by Racing SA (1 source)
- Briefing data: #3, #4, #5, #2 each mentioned once (1 source checked)
- Expert support for #1 Back Me Up Benny: 0% (0/1 sources) - contrarian play
kelly: 0.7% | ev: +$0.21/u | score: 66.0/100