Morphettville R9 | 1400m BM62
Sat 14 Feb | 5:44pm | 15r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #6 TEXAN WINDSTORM @ $16.00 - 0.73u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Betwitchery | 3.20 | 68 | 28% | -10.4% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Streetcar Apollo | 4.80 | 60 | 18% | -13.6% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Vexatious Dancer | 8.00 | 45 | 11% | -12.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Texan Windstorm | 16.00 | 52 | 9% | +44.0% | VALUE | 0.73% |
| 11 | Podargoni | 13.00 | 44 | 8% | +4.0% | WATCH | - |
| 14 | Headphones | 21.00 | 38 | 6% | +26.0% | WATCH | 0.33% |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | C/D | Pace | PlSpec | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vexatious Dancer | 1 | 8.00 | 11664 | Drop BM78>62 | 1/4 C | OK | - | WATCH |
| 2 | Flashing Steel | 4 | 17.00 | 26x47 | Lat BM78 | 0/2 C | OK | - | PASS |
| 3 | Streetcar Apollo | 11 | 4.80 | 13x21 | Lat BM64 | 1/6 C 3/7 D | GOOD | - | WATCH |
| 4 | Zebella | 3 | 11.00 | x2625 | Lat BM80 | 1/8 C 0/1 D | OK | - | PASS |
| 5 | Kokoro | 14 | 67.00 | 5193x | Lat BM70 | 0/0 C 3/13 D | POOR | - | PASS |
| 6 | Texan Windstorm | 6 | 16.00 | x3972 | Drop BM72>62 | 5/18 C 4/19 D | GOOD | 2.46 | VALUE |
| 7 | Burning Bright | 7 | 15.00 | 211x3 | Lat BM70 | 2/12 C 0/3 D | OK | 3.94 | WATCH |
| 8 | Tannenburg | 13 | 51.00 | 31x.. | Lat BM70 | 0/0 C 0/2 D | POOR | - | PASS |
| 9 | Tapinforpar | 2 | 18.00 | 78x15 | Lat BM72 | 2/16 C 4/18 D | OK | - | PASS |
| 10 | Betwitchery | 8 | 3.20 | 18x69 | Lat BM62 | 0/0 C 2/5 D | GOOD | - | WATCH |
| 11 | Podargoni | 5 | 13.00 | 17x29 | Lat BM66 | 1/2 C 2/5 D | OK | - | WATCH |
| 12 | Shisuta Bo | 10 | 34.00 | 431x8 | Lat BM58 | 3/10 C 1/7 D | OK | - | PASS |
| 13 | I Need A Drink | 15 | 34.00 | 63123 | Port Lincoln | 0/3 C 3/13 D | POOR | - | PASS |
| 14 | Headphones | 12 | 21.00 | 25353 | Drop BM72>62 | 0/12 C 7/47 D | GOOD | 3.45 | WATCH |
| 15 | Annihilate | 9 | 17.00 | 44x43 | Drop BM72>62 | 0/13 C 3/19 D | OK | - | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Betwitchery posted the fastest recent 1400m figure (83.59s Pakenham BM62 win). Streetcar Apollo’s 83.02s at 1350m Strathalbyn translates similarly. The Morphettville 1400m BM72 cohort (84.71s) produced Texan Windstorm (2nd), Annihilate (3rd), and Headphones (7th).
Pace: MODERATE. With 15 runners and several on-pace types (Vexatious Dancer bar 1, Streetcar Apollo, Betwitchery), expect genuine tempo without it being suicidal. Mid-field runners with late pace should benefit. Texan Windstorm’s stalking style suits.
Class: Significant class droppers from BM70-78 include Texan Windstorm, Headphones, Annihilate, and Vexatious Dancer. Betwitchery is a lateral mover from BM62 at Pakenham. Streetcar Apollo lateral from BM64 at Strathalbyn (provincial to metro is effectively a rise).
Bias: Neutral bias expected (LOW confidence). No significant style or barrier bias detected from recent meetings.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Texan Windstorm is the value play at $16. His course/distance record is the best in the field (5 wins from 18 at Morphettville, 4 from 19 at 1400m) and he’s dropping from BM72 to BM62. His 2nd at Morphettville 1400m on 31/01 (beaten 1.9L in BM72) is strong form for this class. At 8yo he’s not progressing but this is his track, his trip, and an easier grade. The market has him too long at $16 given the class relief and C/D credentials. EW EV is +27.9% with place specialist score of 2.46.
Betwitchery ($3.20 fav) won well at Pakenham but is first-time in SA, untried at Morphettville, and the price offers no margin. Fair odds ~$3.57 vs $3.20 available = underlay. Respect but don’t back.
KEY RISKS
- Texan Windstorm is 8yo and form this prep is inconsistent (9th, 7th before the 2nd)
- Barrier 6 is manageable but wide runners in this big field may get stuck three-wide
kelly: 0.73% | ev: +$0.28/u (EW) | score: 52.0/100