Randwick R3 | 1100m 2YO Coolmore Pierro Plate
Sat 14 Feb | 1:30pm | 12r | Good 4 (Rain)
ACTION
VALUE: #1 OUTSPAN @ $5.50 - 0.56u WIN EW VALUE: #7 BETTER BY FAR @ $14.00 - 0.23u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Miss Chanel | 9 | $2.80 | 29% | -18.8% | UNDERLAY | - |
| 1 | Outspan | 12 | $5.50 | 20% | +10.0% | VALUE | 0.56% |
| 9 | Sequinned | 1 | $4.60 | 18% | -17.2% | UNDERLAY | - |
| 5 | Ciaron’s Star | 7 | $6.00 | 14% | -16.0% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Better By Far | 5 | $14.00 | 8% | +12.0% | EW VALUE | 0.23% |
| 12 | Zoo Dazzler | 11 | $17.00 | 6% | +2.0% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Pace | Bias | Conn | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Outspan | 12 | $5.50 | 5-1 | 65 | OK | 0% | Neutral | VALUE |
| 2 | Persian Wonder | 4 | $21.00 | 7-x-6 | 65 | OK | 0% | Neutral | PASS |
| 3 | Avengers | 8 | $27.00 | debut | 60 | ? | 0% | Warm | PASS |
| 4 | Miss Chanel | 9 | $2.80 | 3-2 | 68 | GOOD | 0% | Warm | UNDERLAY |
| 5 | Ciaron’s Star | 7 | $6.00 | 3 | 65 | OK | 0% | Warm | WATCH |
| 6 | Caloocan Beauty | 2 | $16.00 | 4 | 63 | OK | 0% | Warm | PASS |
| 7 | Better By Far | 5 | $14.00 | 2 | 62 | OK | 0% | Neutral | EW VALUE |
| 8 | Give Her Strength | 10 | $51.00 | 9-x | 60 | POOR | 0% | Cold | PASS |
| 9 | Sequinned | 1 | $4.60 | 7 | 64 | OK | 0% | Warm | UNDERLAY |
| 10 | Yvonne’s Joy | 6 | $67.00 | 8-x | 58 | POOR | 0% | Cold | PASS |
| 11 | Legaselli | 3 | $151.00 | debut | 55 | ? | 0% | Cold | PASS |
| 12 | Zoo Dazzler | 11 | $17.00 | debut | 60 | OK | 0% | Warm | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Miss Chanel posted fastest 1100m time (63.82s Rosehill, Good) but is priced accordingly at $2.80 - no overlay. Outspan’s 64.83s came on Soft ground at 57.5kg, adjusting for conditions he’s within a length of Miss Chanel’s rating. Pace: MODERATE scenario expected. Outspan, Miss Chanel and Ciaron’s Star likely to settle on-pace or midfield. No dominant leader identified, suits on-pace runners with tactical speed. Class: All 2YOs, open race. Miss Chanel has strongest form line (2nd in Widden Stakes, 0.32L off Chilly Girl). Outspan won convincingly at Rosehill by 1.27L. Better By Far was beaten a nose at Scone stepping up from barrier trial win. Bias: Neutral track bias (LOW confidence). Good 4 with rain forecast - could shift to Soft during meeting, potentially advantaging Outspan (2/2 runs on Soft, both placed).
SELECTION RATIONALE
#1 Outspan (VALUE @ $5.50): Talented colt who won impressively on debut at Rosehill by 1.27L. Wide barrier 12 is the key negative, but his raw ability deserves a 20% win probability vs the market’s ~15%. The +10% edge at $5.50 represents fair value, not a screaming overlay, but with rain forecast and his proven Soft track ability (1 win, 1 place from 2 Soft starts), he could be the improver if the track deteriorates. Trained by Michael Freedman with Sam Clipperton retaining the ride.
#7 Better By Far (EW VALUE @ $14): Strong Place Specialist score (2.35) qualifies her for EW via both Path A (Value Overlay) and Path B (Place Specialist). Missed by a nose at Scone on debut after winning her barrier trial by 2.68L at Randwick. The step to 1100m on a firmer surface with a good barrier (5) should suit, and at $14 the each-way represents 39.7% EW EV. Three Waterhouse/Bott runners in the race (Miss Chanel, Caloocan Beauty, Better By Far) - this is the value play from the stable.
KEY RISKS
- Outspan barrier 12: Widest draw in 12-horse field over 1100m. Needs luck to get across or will be forced to go back - negates his on-pace style
- 2YO form reliability: Limited data for all runners (max 2 starts). Speed figures and probabilities carry wider confidence intervals than established horses
- Weather: Rain forecast could move track to Soft/Heavy, reshuffling the form lines. Helps Outspan but unknown for several debutantes
EXPERT CONSENSUS
| Horse | Sources | Support |
|---|---|---|
| Miss Chanel | 3/3 | 100% (Best Bet) |
| Outspan | 2/3 | 67% |
| Sequinned | 2/3 | 67% |
| Ciaron’s Star | 1/3 | 33% |
Expert consensus strongly favours Miss Chanel but at $2.80 she’s priced as an underlay. Outspan and Sequinned split support for the value alternative.
outspan: kelly 0.56% | ev: +$0.10/u | score: 52.8/100 better by far: kelly 0.23% | ew_ev: +$0.40/u | score: 85.2/100