Randwick R5 | 1600m BM88
Sat 14 Feb | 2:40pm | 12r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
EW VALUE: #9 IT’S A KNOCKOUT @ $6.00 - 0.4u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cross Tasman | 2.15 | 52.7 | 38% | -18.3% | VALUE* | - |
| 9 | It’s A Knockout | 6.00 | 63.0 | 18% | +8.0% | EW VALUE | 0.4% |
| 16 | Captain Furai | 5.00 | 42.0 | 17% | -15.0% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Hellsing | 6.50 | 40.0 | 16% | +4.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Just Party | 13.00 | 30.0 | 6% | -22.0% | PASS | - |
| 13 | Furious | 14.00 | 28.0 | 6% | -16.0% | PASS | - |
*Cross Tasman is clear top-rated but too short to bet.
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glory Daze | 3 | 61 | 33230 | 86 | 0% | Neutral | 15 | PASS |
| 2 | Hellsing | 5 | 6.50 | x722 | 86 | 0% | Neutral | 40 | WATCH |
| 3 | Gold Bullion | 10 | 61 | 65x7x | 82 | 0% | Neutral | 12 | PASS |
| 4 | Redstone Well | 16 | 101 | x8398 | 82 | 0% | Neutral | 10 | PASS |
| 6 | Just Party | 2 | 13 | 52433 | 86 | 0% | Neutral | 30 | PASS |
| 9 | It’s A Knockout | 4 | 6.00 | 1324x | 86 | 0% | Neutral | 63 | VALUE |
| 10 | Cross Tasman | 11 | 2.15 | 3x111 | 86 | 0% | Neutral | 53 | VALUE |
| 11 | Glad You Think So | 1 | 27 | 1228x | 82 | 0% | Neutral | 22 | PASS |
| 12 | Casual Connection | 6 | 91 | 7123x | 78 | 0% | Neutral | 10 | PASS |
| 13 | Furious | 8 | 14 | 93x89 | 86 | 0% | Neutral | 28 | PASS |
| 15 | Jamberoo | 9 | 34 | 14592 | 82 | 0% | Neutral | 18 | PASS |
| 16 | Captain Furai | 12 | 5.00 | 6324x | 84 | 0% | Hot | 42 | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Cross Tasman has the strongest overall figures; 2nd beaten 0.12L in BM88 at Rosehill last start. It’s A Knockout won BM78 by 4.14L and placed in BM96 at 1600m - competitive figures at this level. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. No dominant leaders, likely a stalking race. Suits midfield runners who can settle and produce a finishing kick. Class: Cross Tasman rising sharply (BM78 to BM88) but 50% win rate suggests ability to handle. It’s A Knockout also rising but proven at BM88+ level (2nd Coffs Cup BM96). Captain Furai stepping from BM78 up. Bias: No significant track bias detected (LOW confidence). Good 4 with rain - monitor for deterioration.
SELECTION RATIONALE
It’s A Knockout at $6 offers the best value in the race. She’s a proven place specialist (67% place rate, specialist score 2.13) with genuine 1600m form including a 2nd in the BM96 Coffs Harbour Cup. The Tim Clark booking adds confidence. Rising from a BM78 win by 4.14L, she has the class to compete here. Cross Tasman is clearly the best horse but at $2.15 (fair odds $2.63) there’s no betting value - he’s an underlay. The each-way angle on It’s A Knockout qualifies via Path A: odds >= $6, EW EV +4.6%, place prob 45%.
KEY RISKS
- Cross Tasman is a dominant favourite - if he runs to his rating, minor placings may be the ceiling
- It’s A Knockout resuming from 27 days; last start 12th at Gold Coast (though that was at 1300m in a big field)
- Rain forecast may change track condition - It’s A Knockout has a 2/6 (33%) soft win rate but no heavy track form
kelly: 0.4% | ev: +$0.05/u | score: 63.0/100