Randwick R7 | 1200m BM100
Sat 14 Feb | 3:50pm | 6r | Good 4 | Rain | $171k
ACTION
VALUE: #2 COAL CRUSHER @ $16.00 - 0.47u EW
| EW EV +29.3% | Place specialist score 2.28 | Career 51% place rate |
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Joliestar | $2.60 | 32% | -16.8% | 85.0% | PASS | - |
| 1 | Angel Capital | $3.70 | 28% | +3.6% | 83.9% | WATCH | 0.33% |
| 4 | Lady Shenandoah | $4.00 | 22% | -12.0% | 69.8% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Caballus | $5.00 | 20% | 0.0% | 60.4% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Coal Crusher | $16.00 | 8% | +28.0% | 27.5% | VALUE | 0.47% |
| 7 | Who But Roo | $251 | 2% | +402% | 10.4% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | Form | C/D | Going | Days | Conn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angel Capital | 4 | 57.5 | 1-1-4-6-2 | 0/1 C, 2/4 D | 3/7 G | 90 | Waller/Lloyd |
| 2 | Coal Crusher | 7 | 57.5 | 5-6-4-1-2 | 1/18 C, 2/20 D | 3/23 G, 4/8 H | 62 | Pride/Schofield |
| 3 | Joliestar | 6 | 57.0 | 1-x-1-5-3 | 3/9 C, 4/10 D | 6/13 G | 97 | Waller/McDonald |
| 4 | Lady Shenandoah | 1 | 57.0 | x-2-4-7-2 | 3/6 C, 1/4 D | 5/8 G | 104 | Waller/Rawiller |
| 5 | Caballus | 5 | 56.5 | x-5-1-8-1 | 2/5 C, 3/10 D | 3/12 G | 69 | Baker/Berry |
| 6 | The Instructor | - | - | SCR | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | Who But Roo | 3 | 56.0 | 7-3-6-1-3 | 0/2 C, 5/16 D | 4/18 G | 12 | Crothers/Costin |
| 8 | Manaal | - | - | SCR | - | - | - | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Joliestar owns the best form at this level (Group sprint placings, The Shorts winner). Caballus posted huge recent barrier trial margin (12.58L) suggesting sharp condition. Angel Capital solid through barrier trials (2nd, 3rd) but untested at 1200m since Sep.
Pace: MODERATE scenario - small field with Angel Capital and Caballus likely to press forward. No dominant leader suggests genuine tempo without extremes. Suits on-pace runners with mid-race acceleration.
Class: Joliestar clearly the class runner - Everest/VRC Sprint form at Group level, dropping to BM100. Lady Shenandoah (Manikato, Everest form) also well above this class. Coal Crusher won The Hunter (Listed) and placed in Sydney Stakes at higher level.
Bias: Neutral track bias (LOW confidence). Good 4 with rain - track may deteriorate. Coal Crusher is a noted wet-tracker (4/8 Heavy, 3/16 Soft). If track deteriorates, Coal Crusher’s value increases further.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Coal Crusher at $16 represents the best value in the race. While Joliestar is the most talented runner, she’s a -16.8% underlay at $2.60 first-up from a 97-day break. Coal Crusher’s edge profile is compelling: +28% win edge, +29.3% EW EV, and a career place specialist score of 2.28 (51% career place rate vs 22.4% expected). He won The Hunter at Listed level this prep and placed in the Razorsharp at Randwick. The 8yo gelding handles any ground condition and has the experience for this class. With rain forecast and potential track deterioration, his wet-track record (4 wins from 8 Heavy starts, 3 wins from 16 Soft starts) becomes a significant advantage.
KEY RISKS
- Coal Crusher drawn barrier 7 in a 6-horse field - widest draw, though less impactful in small fields
- First-up 62 days, stepping to 1200m off 900m barrier trials - may need the run
- Joliestar is the class horse and may simply be too good despite the short price
MARKET NOTES
- Market % 117.1% (6-runner field post scratchings)
- Favourite Joliestar ($2.60) implied 38.5% - we rate her 32% (UNDERLAY)
- Three Waller runners (#1, #3, #4) dominate the market
- Expert tips split across #1, #3, #4, #5 (25% each, 1 source only)
- Scratchings: #6 The Instructor, #8 Manaal
kelly: 0.47% | ew_ev: +29.3% | edge: +28.0% | place_specialist: 2.28