Randwick R9 | 1200m Listed Triscay Stakes
Sat 14 Feb | 5:10pm | 11r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #2 MANAAL @ $5.50 - 0.56u EW VALUE: #6 TUILERIES @ $15.00 - 0.89u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly | EW EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Manaal | 5 | $5.50 | 20% | +10.0% | VALUE | 0.56% | +11.9% |
| 6 | Tuileries | 1 | $15.00 | 10% | +50.0% | VALUE | 0.89% | +40.2% |
| 4 | Weeping Woman | 8 | $4.40 | 22% | -3.2% | WATCH | - | - |
| 1 | Lazzura | 11 | $5.00 | 15% | -15.0% | PASS | - | - |
| 8 | Countyourblessings | 2 | $14.00 | 8% | +12.0% | WATCH | 0.23% | +8.5% |
| 3 | Gerringong | 7 | $7.00 | 12% | -9.0% | PASS | - | - |
| 11 | Super Norwest | 6 | $20.00 | 6% | +20.0% | WATCH | 0.26% | +15.2% |
| 10 | Lilac | 9 | $7.50 | 8% | -25.0% | PASS | - | - |
| 7 | Verona Rose | 3 | $12.00 | 7% | -16.0% | PASS | - | - |
| 5 | Just Feelin’ Lucky | 10 | $26.00 | 4% | +4.0% | PASS | - | - |
| 9 | Dark Glitter | 4 | $46.00 | 3% | +38.0% | PASS | - | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Class | Pace | Form | C/D | Conn | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazzura | 11 | $5.00 | Listed | OK | x1155 | 1/7 2/4 | Waller/McDonald | PASS |
| 2 | Manaal | 5 | $5.50 | Grp3 | GOOD | x8114 | 4/10 3/7 | Freedman/Collett | VALUE |
| 3 | Gerringong | 7 | $7.00 | Listed | OK | 44292 | 0/2 0/3 | Waterhouse/Hyeronimus | PASS |
| 4 | Weeping Woman | 8 | $4.40 | BM78 | OK | 4x111 | 1/1 2/5 | Pride/Clark | WATCH |
| 5 | Just Feelin’ Lucky | 10 | $26.00 | Listed | POOR | 18x1x | 0/2 1/3 | Freedman/Berry | PASS |
| 6 | Tuileries | 1 | $15.00 | Listed | GOOD | 81325 | 1/1 1/2 | Snowden/Schofield | VALUE |
| 7 | Verona Rose | 3 | $12.00 | Grp3 | POOR | 2841x | 0/3 0/0 | Portelli/Morgan | PASS |
| 8 | Countyourblessings | 2 | $14.00 | BM88 | OK | 28813 | 1/3 5/13 | O’Shea/Lloyd | WATCH |
| 9 | Dark Glitter | 4 | $46.00 | BM88 | OK | 55766 | 1/8 2/8 | Van Gestel/Schiller | PASS |
| 10 | Lilac | 9 | $7.50 | Listed | OK | 431x8 | 1/4 1/6 | Archibald/Gibbons | PASS |
| 11 | Super Norwest | 6 | $20.00 | CL3 | OK | 32x11 | 2/9 3/11 | Dale/Nock | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Manaal clocked the fastest 1200m race time (70.40s Sheraco, soft) in stakes company; Countyourblessings ran 69.76s at BM88 level on soft. Lazzura’s 72.20s came on heavy.
Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. Tuileries (bar 1) and Countyourblessings (bar 2) can settle on-pace without burning fuel. Manaal (bar 5) maps to midfield with cover. Lazzura (bar 11) must go back or burn energy crossing.
Class: Manaal has the strongest form lines - won Listed Sheraco and Group 3 Gold Pendant, placed in The Invitation (worth 100+ class rating). Weeping Woman has class question marks rising from BM78 to Listed. Gerringong’s Invitation 2nd is also quality.
Bias: No significant track bias detected (LOW confidence). Rain forecast could shift conditions; Manaal handles soft/heavy (3 wins from 5 on give).
SELECTION RATIONALE
Manaal is the value play in this race. Her Listed/Group class edge is clear - Sheraco winner, Gold Pendant winner, Invitation placegetter - yet she drifts to $5.50 behind the BM78 mare Weeping Woman. Four wins at Randwick (40% course strike rate) and three distance wins from seven starts (43%) give proven C/D credentials. Two barrier trials (2nd and 4th) suggest she’s forward enough first-up for a mare who won the Sheraco fresh in September. The $5.50 offers +10% edge with +11.9% EW EV. Freedman/Collett combination adds confidence.
Tuileries is the each-way overlay. Barrier 1 in an 11-horse field at 1200m is gold - she’ll get a soft run on the rail. Won at Warwick Farm 1400m first-up previously and has a Randwick 1050m trial 2nd (27 Jan). Canberra Times expert has her on top. Place specialist score of 2.08 (STRONG) and +40.2% EW EV at $15 makes her the standout value proposition. Peter Snowden’s mares excel fresh.
KEY RISKS
- Rain could shift track to Soft - benefits Manaal (3/5 on give) but unknown for Tuileries on heavy
- Weeping Woman’s three straight wins suggest she could be better than her BM78 rating; market may be right
- Both selections first-up from 100+ day spells - fitness a question in a fast 1200m
EW ANALYSIS
| Horse | Place Prob | Place Spec | EW EV | Path |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manaal | 53.6% | 1.17 | +11.9% | A: Odds $5.50, EW EV +11.9%, Place 53.6% |
| Tuileries | 29.0% | 2.08 | +40.2% | B: Odds $15, Specialist 2.08 |
| Countyourblessings | 24.7% | 2.84 | +8.5% | B: Odds $14, Specialist 2.84 |
| Super Norwest | 19.2% | - | +15.2% | C: Odds $20, Place EV +10.4% |
manaal: kelly 0.56% | ev: +$0.12/u | edge: +10.0% tuileries: kelly 0.89% | ev: +$0.40/u | edge: +50.0%