Canterbury R1 | 1250m CL1
Fri 20 Feb | 6:00pm | 8r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #2 EYNESBURY @ $11.00 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Eynesbury | 11.00 | 46.0 | 10% | +10.0% | VALUE | 0.5% |
| 8 | Rach | 6.50 | 42.0 | 16% | -2.5% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Hay Street | 2.50 | 39.0 | 28% | -25.0% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Farfetched | 6.00 | 35.0 | 14% | -22.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Nordic Viking | 4.20 | 30.0 | 13% | -41.2% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Your Chilli | 13.00 | 22.0 | 5% | -35.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Eynesbury | 3 | 11.00 | 68 | OK | 60 | 0% | Waller/Rawiller | 46 | VALUE |
| 3 | Farindira | 4 | 12.00 | - | - | 55 | 0% | W’house/Hyero | 20 | PASS |
| 4 | Hay Street | 7 | 2.50 | 80 | GOOD | 65 | 0% | Archibald/Sherry | 39 | WATCH |
| 5 | Mister Martini | 5 | 31.00 | 58 | POOR | 55 | 0% | Hawkes/Schiller | 18 | PASS |
| 6 | Nordic Viking | 2 | 4.20 | 72 | OK | 68 | 0% | Sargent/Clipperton | 30 | PASS |
| 7 | Your Chilli | 6 | 13.00 | 55 | - | 55 | 0% | Waller/Sexton | 22 | PASS |
| 8 | Rach | 1 | 6.50 | 75 | OK | 62 | 0% | Waller/Berry | 42 | WATCH |
| 9 | Farfetched | 9 | 6.00 | 70 | OK | 63 | 0% | W’house/Clark | 35 | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Hay Street holds the best figures (80), 5pts clear of Rach (75). Eynesbury improving (68) with scope for more. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. No confirmed leaders; Hay Street and Nordic Viking likely to be prominent. Should suit on-pace runners. Class: All maidens stepping into CL1 for the first time. Hay Street contested Vain Stakes (Listed) as a 2yo - clear class edge. Nordic Viking has most race experience (8 starts). Bias: No significant bias detected. Rail position not specified. LOW confidence in bias data.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Eynesbury offers the only genuine value play at $11. Second at Gosford (beaten 0.13L) last start in a maiden represents solid form for this CL1 field. Nash Rawiller takes the ride for Chris Waller, a powerful combination. The inside barrier (3) is advantageous, and the gelding is improving with racing. At double-figure odds, the each-way return is attractive with EW EV of +8.7% confirmed.
Hay Street is clearly the most talented runner (best speed figures, Listed class experience) but is significantly overbacked at $2.50 against our 28% win probability - a 25% underlay. The market is pricing in his trial win and class edge but ignoring that he’s never won a race start.
KEY RISKS
- Eynesbury’s inconsistent form (9th two starts back) and limited race experience (3 starts)
- Rain forecast could shift track to Soft, altering the going dynamics - Eynesbury untested on heavy
kelly: 0.5% | ev: +$0.87/u (EW) | score: 46.0/100 source: sportsbetform.com.au