Canterbury R3 | 1100m BM72
Fri 20 Feb | 7:00pm | 9r (2 scr) | Good 4
ACTION
EW VALUE: #3 GENEROUS HARRY @ $7.50 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Generous Harry | 7.50 | 56.8 | 15% | +12.5% | VALUE | 0.5% |
| 1 | Kimberley Secrets | 2.80 | 52.0 | 25% | -30.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Rumours Abound | 2.90 | 45.0 | 18% | -47.8% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Xpresso | 13.00 | 38.0 | 8% | +4.0% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Ready To Shine | 11.00 | 35.0 | 7% | -23.0% | PASS | - |
| 11 | Jenni The Jet | 9.50 | 30.0 | 7% | -33.5% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimberley Secrets | 4 | 2.80 | 342222 | OK | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 52.0 | WATCH |
| 2 | The Face | 2 | 27.00 | 8x665 | POOR | 55 | 0% | Neutral | 20.0 | PASS |
| 3 | Generous Harry | 9 | 7.50 | 12x11 | OK | 72 | 0% | Neutral | 56.8 | VALUE |
| 4 | West Of Dalby | 7 | 12.00 | 9x455 | POOR | 65 | 0% | Neutral | 28.0 | PASS |
| 5 | Xpresso | 6 | 13.00 | 53663 | OK | 70 | 0% | Neutral | 38.0 | WATCH |
| 6 | Rumours Abound | 5 | 2.90 | 26x41 | GOOD | 68 | 0% | Hot | 45.0 | WATCH |
| 9 | King Of Florida | 1 | 81.00 | x496x | POOR | 50 | 0% | Neutral | 12.0 | PASS |
| 10 | Ready To Shine | 10 | 11.00 | 28541 | OK | 70 | 0% | Neutral | 35.0 | PASS |
| 11 | Jenni The Jet | 3 | 9.50 | 25134 | OK | 64 | 0% | Neutral | 30.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: #1 Kimberley Secrets has the best recent speed figures with consistent 1100m times (63.44s Wyong). #3 Generous Harry showed sharp acceleration winning 3 of last 5 at 1000m but untested at 1100m at this level. Pace: MODERATE - #6 Rumours Abound likely to press forward, #1 Kimberley Secrets stalks. No extreme leaders, shape should suit on-pace runners. #3 from midfield with a turn of foot. Class: #1 is a proven BM72 performer (6 straight placings at level). #6 rising sharply from BM62 country to BM72 metro - significant class query. #3 rising from BM64 wins but showed quality (2.38L Wyong, sharp Kensington win). Bias: Neutral - no significant track bias detected. Good 4 should play fairly.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Generous Harry offers genuine each-way value at $7.50. Won 3 of last 5 starts through the grades (Kensington, Wyong by 2.38L, Gosford) showing progressive form for Ron Quinton. While stepping to 1100m at BM72 for the first time, the way he dominated at 1000m (56.29s Wyong) suggests he has the raw speed to handle the extra 100m. Strong place specialist score (1.51) with 55% career place rate from 11 starts. EW EV of +10.7% via Path A qualifies as STRONG EW VALUE. The two market leaders look overbet - #1 is a chronic placer (5 wins from 24) at $2.80, and #6 is a massive class rise from country BM62.
KEY RISKS
- First time at 1100m in open company - all recent wins at 1000m or shorter
- Barrier 9 in a 9-horse field - will need to be ridden with patience from wide gate
kelly: 0.5% | ev: +$0.11/u | score: 56.8/100 | ew_ev: +10.7%