Canterbury R7 | 1250m BM74
Fri 20 Feb | 9:00pm | 7r (5 scratched) | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #4 ALBANY ROAD @ $4.40 - 1.0u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ferinzo | 2.80 | 65.0 | 30% | -16.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Albany Road | 4.40 | 58.2 | 22% | -3.2% | VALUE (EW) | 1.0u EW |
| 11 | Calga Power | 3.50 | 52.4 | 18% | -37.0% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | Ornithology | 5.00 | 44.0 | 12% | -40.0% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | True To Form | 14.00 | 28.5 | 6% | -16.0% | PASS | - |
| 10 | Kilman | 14.00 | 18.0 | 4% | -44.0% | PASS | - |
| 2 | Debello | 41.00 | 15.0 | 4% | +64.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Going | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ferinzo | 4 | 2.80 | 2-1-x-1-1 | Rising | 2:2 G | Hull/Parr | 65.0 | WATCH |
| 4 | Albany Road | 9 | 4.40 | 5-4-1-x-1-1 | BM72>74 | 2:2 G | Waterhouse/Bayliss | 58.2 | VALUE |
| 11 | Calga Power | 2 | 3.50 | x-1-2-4-3-2 | CL1>74 | 1:5 G | Lees/Gibbons | 52.4 | WATCH |
| 8 | Ornithology | 1 | 5.00 | 1-3-x | Mdn>74 | 0:1 G | Waller/Berry | 44.0 | WATCH |
| 1 | True To Form | 6 | 14.00 | 6-9-2-7-x | BM74 | 4:4 G | Lees/Schiller | 28.5 | PASS |
| 10 | Kilman | 3 | 14.00 | x-5-6-9-8-x | BM72>74 | 0:4 G | Waller/Lloyd | 18.0 | PASS |
| 2 | Debello | 11 | 41.00 | 3-4-1-6-5-x | BM72>74 | 4:16 G | Portelli/Bourke | 15.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Ferinzo has posted the best raw times at shorter trips (62.89s/1100m Gosford), but untested at 1250m. Albany Road’s Canterbury 1100m win (63.91s) and Kensington 1100m win (63.53s) show solid figures with upside as distance extends.
Pace: MODERATE - small field, Ferinzo and Albany Road likely to sit handy. No genuine speed-on, which should produce a genuine tempo without extremes. Suits on-pace runners.
Class: Ferinzo rising sharply from CL1/provincial to metro BM74 - significant test. Albany Road stepping up from BM72 win, more logical progression. Calga Power also rising from lower grades. Ornithology making debut at this level after only 2 career starts.
Bias: Neutral at Canterbury (low confidence). Good 4 with rain forecast - monitor for track deterioration which would suit Albany Road (1:1 soft) and Ferinzo (1:1 soft).
SELECTION RATIONALE
Albany Road is the each-way play at $4.40. The 3yo has won 3 of 6 starts including a Canterbury victory last start (BM72, beating Agarwood who was $2.80 fav). The step to BM74 over 1250m is a logical progression after a strong 1100m campaign. Regan Bayliss retains the ride for the Waterhouse/Bott stable and the EW expected value of +10.4% makes this the clear value angle. Ferinzo is the likely winner but $2.80 offers no value for a horse untested at 1250m and making a sharp class rise from provincial company.
KEY RISKS
- Albany Road untested beyond 1175m - the 1250m is a query, though breeding and racing style suggest he’ll handle it
- Ferinzo may simply be too good if the distance is no issue - progressive type with 3 straight wins
- Rain could deteriorate track further; currently Good 4 with rain falling
ew_ev: +10.4% | win_edge: -3.2% | place_prob: 66.6% | score: 58.2/100