Cranbourne R3 | 1000m Listed (2YO)
Fri 20 Feb | 7:15pm | 8r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
EW VALUE: #3 DANCE THE BOOGIE @ $13.00 - 1.2u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dance The Boogie | 13.00 | 44.7 | 12% | +56.0% | VALUE | 1.17% |
| 5 | Handee | 11.00 | 32.0 | 10% | +10.0% | WATCH | 0.25% |
| 4 | Flash Of Class | 2.70 | 38.0 | 28% | -24.4% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Simply Steffi | 3.10 | 30.0 | 22% | -31.8% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Dirty Harry | 3.50 | 24.0 | 18% | -37.0% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Neonova | 16.00 | 15.0 | 5% | - | PASS | - |
| 8 | Pain Au Chocolat | 18.00 | 12.0 | 4% | - | PASS | - |
| 2 | Cool Victory | 91.00 | 5.0 | 1% | - | PASS | - |
FIELD TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Jockey | Trainer | Form | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dirty Harry | 3 | 3.50 | C Gaudray | B/W/JD Hayes | Debut | 24 | PASS |
| 2 | Cool Victory | 4 | 91.00 | A Herrmann | M&L Cerchi | Debut | 5 | PASS |
| 3 | Dance The Boogie | 6 | 13.00 | J Radley | B/W/JD Hayes | 2x | 45 | VALUE |
| 4 | Flash Of Class | 7 | 2.70 | C Williams | M Walker | 6x | 38 | WATCH |
| 5 | Handee | 10 | 11.00 | Z Spain | J Warren | Debut | 32 | WATCH |
| 7 | Neonova | 2 | 16.00 | P Moloney | J McArdle | Debut | 15 | PASS |
| 8 | Pain Au Chocolat | 5 | 18.00 | J Noonan | C Maher | Debut | 12 | PASS |
| 10 | Simply Steffi | 9 | 3.10 | B Melham | C McDonald | 7x | 30 | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: No meaningful speed figures available - all debutants or one-start maidens with no sectional data. Flash Of Class ran 58.44s at Flemington 1000m (competitive); Simply Steffi ran 58.87s at Caulfield on Soft. Pace: UNKNOWN - insufficient data to model pace shape. Expect a genuinely run 1000m sprint with most runners looking to be prominent. Class: Listed 2YO race. Dance The Boogie is the only runner with a race placing (2nd Bendigo 1000m). Flash Of Class (6th Maribyrnong Trial) and Simply Steffi (7th M Cooper) have metro race experience. Bias: Neutral. No track bias data available for this meeting. LOW confidence.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Dance The Boogie offers each-way value at $13 in a debutant-heavy field where confidence is low across the board. She is the only runner with a race placing (2nd at Bendigo over 1000m on Good), representing genuine race experience in a field of mostly jump-out graduates. The Hayes stable (elite) has prepared her with two recent jump-outs (2nd and 4th) after a 124-day break, suggesting a targeted return. At $13 she qualifies via EW Path A: odds >= $6, EW EV +55.6%, place probability 38.8%. The three short-priced runners (Flash Of Class, Simply Steffi, Dirty Harry) are all underlays on probability assessment - their market prices bake in too much certainty for unraced/lightly-raced 2YOs.
KEY RISKS
- MEDIUM data quality - almost no race timing data available; probability estimates are low-confidence
- 124-day break for Dance The Boogie - fitness question despite recent jump-outs
- All debutants carry high variance - any runner could produce an unexpected performance
- Rain forecast may change track condition during meeting (currently Good 4)
CAVEATS
Data quality is MEDIUM. This is a 2YO maiden/Listed race where 6 of 8 runners are unraced. Speed figures, pace ratings, and class comparisons are largely unavailable. Probability estimates are primarily driven by trainer quality, jockey bookings, barrier draws, and limited jump-out/trial form. Stake accordingly.
kelly: 1.17% | ev: +$0.56/u (EW) | score: 44.7/100 | data: MEDIUM