Cranbourne R6 | 1600m BM70
Fri 20 Feb | 8:45pm | 6r | Good 4 | Rain 6C
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #2 CAT NOIR @ $6.50 - 1.4u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cat Noir | 6.50 | 68.2 | 20% | +30.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.36% |
| 8 | Every Little Thing | 16.00 | 47.5 | 7% | +12.0% | VALUE | 0.20% |
| 1 | Stage ‘N’ Screen | 2.00 | 55.0 | 34% | -32.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Indian Jewel | 4.50 | 48.0 | 18% | -19.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Champagne Jenni | 4.60 | 35.0 | 14% | -35.6% | PASS | - |
| 3 | Charming Deel | 9.00 | 28.0 | 10% | -10.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Pace | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stage ‘N’ Screen | 8 | 2.00 | x3213 | 76 | OK | 0% | Neutral | 55.0 | WATCH |
| 2 | Cat Noir | 6 | 6.50 | 51311 | 74 | GOOD | 0% | Neutral | 68.2 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 3 | Charming Deel | 1 | 9.00 | x4575 | 70 | POOR | 0% | Neutral | 28.0 | PASS |
| 4 | Champagne Jenni | 2 | 4.60 | 82150 | 72 | OK | 0% | C.Williams | 35.0 | PASS |
| 6 | Indian Jewel | 3 | 4.50 | 26720 | 76 | OK | 0% | Neutral | 48.0 | WATCH |
| 8 | Every Little Thing | 5 | 16.00 | 36100 | 64 | GOOD | 0% | Neutral | 47.5 | VALUE |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Stage ‘N’ Screen has the best raw figures off 1400m wins, but steps to 1600m for first time - unknown. Cat Noir’s Colac 1600m win (97.02s) and Sandown 3rd are solid mile references. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected with no genuine leaders. Cat Noir and Indian Jewel likely to sit midfield and benefit from a genuine tempo if it eventuates. Class: Cat Noir rising from BM66 country to BM70 metro, but won comfortably (0.75L) last start. Champagne Jenni returning from 200-day spell with zero 1600m starts - significant query. Every Little Thing rises sharply from BM56 country. Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Good 4 track with rain - may shift during meeting.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Cat Noir offers the standout value play at $6.50. Won last start at Colac BM66 by 0.75L, prior 3rd at Sandown Hillside BM70 (beaten 1.25L in a 6-horse field). Has 5 starts at the mile for 2 wins and solid distance record. The market heavily favours Stage ‘N’ Screen ($2.00) who is untested at 1600m and drawn wide in barrier 8 - this creates overlay opportunity on Cat Noir who has proven mile form. At $6.50 vs fair odds of $5.00, the +30% edge makes this a clear EW play.
Every Little Thing at $16 is a speculative EW saver. Strong place specialist score (2.13) and won last start at Werribee 1618m. The sharp class rise from BM56 to BM70 is the key concern, but place odds of $6.25 with 24% place probability offer some value.
KEY RISKS
- Stage ‘N’ Screen is the clear class horse - if 1600m suits, could dominate this small field
- Rain forecast may deteriorate track; Cat Noir has limited wet form (1 start on soft for 1 win)
- Small field (6 runners) reduces place value - only 2 places paid
PLACE ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Place% | Place Odds | Specialist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stage ‘N’ Screen | 85.0% | 1.30 | Poor (0.61) |
| 2 | Cat Noir | 60.8% | 2.80 | Normal (0.85) |
| 6 | Indian Jewel | 55.4% | 2.10 | Normal (0.99) |
| 4 | Champagne Jenni | 43.2% | 2.15 | Normal |
| 3 | Charming Deel | 31.8% | 3.60 | Normal |
| 8 | Every Little Thing | 23.8% | 6.25 | STRONG (2.13) |
EW VALUE
| Horse | Win EV | Place EV | EW EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cat Noir | +30.0% | +18.8% | +24.4% | STRONG EW VALUE |
| Every Little Thing | +12.0% | +18.8% | +15.4% | STRONG EW VALUE |
Cat Noir: kelly 1.4% | ew_ev: +24.4% | score: 68.2/100 Every Little Thing: kelly 0.2% | ew_ev: +15.4% | score: 47.5/100