Cranbourne R7 | 2025m BM120 Hurdle
Fri 20 Feb | 9:15pm | 8r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #1 SING FOR PEACE @ $17.00 - 1.1u EW VALUE: #3 PRIVILEGED SON @ $17.00 - 0.6u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sing For Peace | 17.00 | 58 | 10% | +70.0% | VALUE | 1.1% |
| 3 | Privileged Son | 17.00 | 48 | 8% | +36.0% | VALUE | 0.6% |
| 9 | Thinking Gold | 7.00 | 42 | 14% | -2.0% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | Powerful Torque | 5.00 | 40 | 18% | -10.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | The Western Front | 2.70 | 38 | 22% | -40.6% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Warchime | 8.00 | 30 | 10% | -20.0% | PASS | - |
| 2 | All So Clear | 4.20 | 28 | 12% | -49.6% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Lauding | 13.00 | 20 | 6% | -22.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Pace | Bias | PlSpec | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sing For Peace | 4 | 17.00 | 2-3-3-2-x | Hurdle | OK | 0% | 3.55 | 58 | VALUE |
| 2 | All So Clear | 5 | 4.20 | 1-3-x-5-7 | BM70 | OK | 0% | 2.40 | 28 | PASS |
| 3 | Privileged Son | 2 | 17.00 | 6-3-1-2-x | Hurdle | OK | 0% | - | 48 | VALUE |
| 5 | Lauding | 8 | 13.00 | 8-8-5-8-x | BM78 | POOR | 0% | - | 20 | PASS |
| 6 | The Western Front | 10 | 2.70 | 9-1-3-x-4 | BM70 | GOOD | 0% | - | 38 | WATCH |
| 7 | Warchime | 6 | 8.00 | 5-x-8-1-4 | BM66 | OK | 0% | - | 30 | PASS |
| 8 | Powerful Torque | 11 | 5.00 | 6-8-4-1-1 | BM66 | GOOD | 0% | - | 40 | WATCH |
| 9 | Thinking Gold | 3 | 7.00 | 4-x-2-1-7 | BM70 | OK | 0% | 2.06 | 42 | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: The Western Front has the best flat speed figures but this is a hurdle race where jumping ability dominates; Sing For Peace and Privileged Son have proven hurdle form at longer trips. Pace: MODERATE expected with no dominant early speed; suits mid-runners and those who settle and jump cleanly through the middle stages. Class: BM120 hurdle is a niche class - several runners stepping up significantly from BM62-70 flat racing; only Sing For Peace (BM120 HDLE) and Privileged Son (BM75 hurdle 2nd) have genuine hurdle class credentials. Bias: No significant track bias detected at Cranbourne tonight (LOW confidence). Neutral rail.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#1 Sing For Peace is the standout EW value at $17. This 7yo has extensive hurdle experience (6 hurdle starts: 0-2-2-0-1-1 for 33% win, 67% place over jumps), a place specialist score of 3.55, and proven staying ability with 2 wins from 4 starts at 2000m+. The Payne yard are jumps specialists. At $17 with EW EV of +66.3%, this represents strong each-way value in a small field where the market is heavily skewed toward flat-form runners with limited jumps credentials. #3 Privileged Son from the same Payne stable offers secondary EW value with a hurdle win at Warrnambool (3172m) and 2nd at Mt Gambier over 3150m. At $17 with +36% EW EV, worth a saver.
KEY RISKS
- Sing For Peace’s recent flat form is moderate (5th, 6th) and hasn’t raced over hurdles since Aug 2025 - fitness for jumping is the key query
- The Western Front has Craig Williams aboard and dominant flat ability - if the hurdles are straightforward he could win on class alone
- Powerful Torque is in career-best form (back-to-back wins) and could handle the step up in trip/class
EW ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Win% | Place% | PlSpec | EW EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sing For Peace | 10% | 32.5% | 3.55 | +66.3% | STRONG EW |
| 3 | Privileged Son | 8% | 25.4% | - | +31.5% | STRONG EW |
| 9 | Thinking Gold | 14% | 40.5% | 2.06 | -0.4% | FAIR |
| 8 | Powerful Torque | 18% | 48.8% | - | -6.2% | NO VALUE |
#1 kelly: 1.1% | ew_ev: +66.3% | score: 58/100 | #3 kelly: 0.6% | ew_ev: +31.5% | score: 48/100