Launceston R1 | 1100m CL3 (Maiden SW)
Fri 20 Feb | 6:08pm | 15r | Soft 5
ACTION
NO WIN BET - No contender meets Best Bet or Strong Value thresholds in this weak maiden.
EW WATCH: #6 TEAM HEIST @ $9.00 - Place Specialist (score 2.64) Qualifies via Path B but long spell (233 days) warrants caution. Monitor for market support pre-race.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rushonova | $3.00 | 35.5 | 22% | -25% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Strato Ken | $3.90 | 28.0 | 15% | -45% | PASS | - |
| 6 | Team Heist | $9.00 | 33.3 | 8% | -28% | VALUE (EW) | - |
| 8 | Dizz Boogie Time | $6.50 | 14.5 | 10% | -35% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Awesome Orphan | $8.50 | 10.6 | 8% | -24% | PASS | - |
| 15 | Mister Manihi | $11.00 | 15.6 | 6% | -34% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiosphere | 8 | $17 | 6-7-3-8-5-4 | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 18 | PASS |
| 2 | Just Plain Nuts | 12 | $101 | Debut | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 5 | PASS |
| 3 | Strato Ken | 6 | $3.90 | 7-8-2 | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 28 | PASS |
| 4 | Unfiltered | 14 | $26 | Debut | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 8 | PASS |
| 5 | Yukonroc | 2 | $27 | Debut | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 8 | PASS |
| 6 | Team Heist | 3 | $9.00 | 3-5-3-4-3-x | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 33 | VALUE |
| 7 | Awesome Orphan | 1 | $8.50 | 6-4-x | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 11 | PASS |
| 8 | Dizz Boogie Time | 10 | $6.50 | Debut | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 15 | PASS |
| 9 | Roossis Cat | 5 | $46 | Debut | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 5 | PASS |
| 10 | Rushonova | 13 | $3.00 | 2-3 | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 36 | WATCH |
| 11 | Overspent | 15 | $151 | 9 | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 3 | PASS |
| 12 | Dressed In Saturn | 4 | $91 | x | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 5 | PASS |
| 13 | Mcveigh | 7 | $20 | 9 | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 10 | PASS |
| 14 | Dennyson | 9 | $41 | 8 | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 7 | PASS |
| 15 | Mister Manihi | 11 | $11 | x-8-3-5-4-7 | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 16 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: No reliable speed figures - maiden field with limited race timing data. Rushonova’s two runs at Launceston (2nd, 3rd) are the best form reference. Pace: MODERATE - several first-starters will likely settle back, genuine pace uncertain. Barrier 1 (Awesome Orphan) and barrier 3 (Team Heist) can dictate positions. Class: All runners maiden class (rating 60). Team Heist competed in VIC maidens (Mornington, Sale, Pakenham) which rate higher than TAS maidens - class drop advantage. Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Soft 5 track may favour experienced wet-trackers - Rushonova (2 from 2 on soft) and Team Heist (1 place from 2 on soft).
SELECTION RATIONALE
No runner qualifies for a Best Bet or Strong Value selection. Rushonova is the clear class runner with 100% placing rate (2 from 2) at this track on soft ground, but $3.00 in a 15-runner maiden with barrier 13 offers no value - fair odds closer to $4.00. Team Heist qualifies as an EW Place Specialist (score 2.64) via Path B with consistent placing form (4 placings from 9 starts in stronger VIC maidens), but the 233-day spell is a significant concern and negates a formal recommendation.
KEY RISKS
- Large maiden field (15 runners) with 7 debutants - high variance, unpredictable
- Rushonova drawn barrier 13 in a 15-horse field at 1100m on soft - must overcome traffic
- Team Heist returning from 233-day spell with no trial evidence at this distance
no bet | best score: 35.5/100 (Rushonova WATCH)