Launceston R2 | 1200m BM60
Fri 20 Feb | 6:38pm | 12r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #7 BAD ALIBI @ $5.50 - 1.1u EW EW VALUE: #5 ACCUSAIENT @ $10.00 - 1.0u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bad Alibi | 5.50 | 51.8 | 20% | +10.0% | VALUE | 1.1% |
| 5 | Accusaient | 10.00 | 45.1 | 12% | +20.0% | VALUE | 1.0% |
| 2 | Ilovethistown | 3.50 | 42.0 | 26% | -9.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Novalargo | 7.00 | 38.0 | 15% | +5.0% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Roundle Park | 4.80 | 36.0 | 17% | -18.4% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Rawabi | 9.50 | 32.0 | 10% | -5.0% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rawabi | 1 | 9.50 | 31225 | OK | 64 | 0% | Neutral | 32 | WATCH |
| 2 | Ilovethistown | 3 | 3.50 | 3x215 | GOOD | 68 | 0% | Neutral | 42 | WATCH |
| 3 | Roundle Park | 4 | 4.80 | 1x255 | OK | 65 | 0% | Neutral | 36 | WATCH |
| 4 | Novalargo | 2 | 7.00 | 31x50 | OK | 64 | 0% | Neutral | 38 | WATCH |
| 5 | Accusaient | 7 | 10.00 | 96710 | OK | 66 | 0% | Neutral | 45 | VALUE |
| 6 | Artillery Fire | 12 | 6.50 | x13x6 | OK | 66 | 0% | Neutral | 30 | PASS |
| 7 | Bad Alibi | 8 | 5.50 | 84321 | GOOD | 66 | 0% | Neutral | 52 | VALUE |
| 9 | Lady Fern | 9 | 31.00 | 8757x | POOR | 62 | 0% | Neutral | 18 | PASS |
| 10 | Wild Nights | 14 | 27.00 | 857x2 | POOR | 64 | 0% | Neutral | 20 | PASS |
| 11 | Zulu Fields | 6 | 51.00 | x1847 | POOR | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 15 | PASS |
| 12 | Alpine Joy | 5 | 51.00 | 78x9x | POOR | 58 | 0% | Neutral | 10 | PASS |
| 13 | Vanity Star | 11 | 27.00 | x8x24 | POOR | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 16 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Bad Alibi ran 73.37s over 1220m at Launceston on Soft (winning) - best recent time in the field at this track. Ilovethistown ran 71.05s over 1200m winning at Launceston but from a weak maiden field of 7. Pace: MODERATE shape expected with Ilovethistown and Novalargo likely prominent from inside barriers. Bad Alibi can sit midfield and finish strongly - improving form pattern (8-4-3-2-1) suggests peak fitness. Class: All contenders BM60 grade or rising from maidens/CL1. Bad Alibi steps up from maiden win but 1L margin from 14-runner field was solid. Accusaient won maiden at Hobart by 0.75L - needs to prove at this level. Bias: Neutral bias, low confidence. Soft 5 track with rain - wet trackers preferred. Bad Alibi 1w/3p from 3 soft starts. Accusaient 1w/1p from 5 soft starts.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Bad Alibi is the primary selection based on peak form trajectory (8-4-3-2-1), Launceston course specialist (5 starts, 1 win, all at this track), and value at $5.50 with 10% edge. The 3yo filly won her maiden impressively last start over 1220m here on Soft, and the step to BM60 is manageable given she beat a field of 14. Strong place specialist score of 1.9 makes her ideal EW at these odds. Accusaient qualifies as EW VALUE via Path A - $10.00 odds with 11.7% EW EV and 35% place probability. Won her maiden at Hobart two starts back but untested at Launceston. The 20% win edge at double-digit odds provides excellent value if she handles the track switch. Craig Newitt booking adds confidence.
KEY RISKS
- Bad Alibi stepping from maiden to BM60 - class rise untested
- Barrier 8 in 12-runner field on Soft track may force wide passage
- Accusaient has no Launceston form - track suitability unknown
- Ilovethistown ($3.50 fav) has course-distance win and inside draw - market respects this runner heavily
#7 Bad Alibi: kelly 1.1% | ev: +$0.08/u | score: 51.8/100 | place specialist: 1.9 #5 Accusaient: kelly 1.0% | ew_ev: +11.7% | score: 45.1/100 | path: A (Value Overlay)