Launceston R4 | 2100m BM64
Fri 20 Feb | 2:30pm | 15r | Good 3 | Rain | Top Tote
ACTION
NO BET - No market odds available. Re-assess at post time.
Top ranked: #2 JOHNNIE PINCH (score 68.2) - monitor for EW value if $6.00+ Danger: #4 VINO NOVELLO (score 67.0) - talent but last run query
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Est.Odds | Score | Win% | Place% | PlcSpec | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Johnnie Pinch | $5.00 | 68.2 | 15% | 37% | 1.74 | VALUE |
| 4 | Vino Novello | $4.50 | 67.0 | 14% | 36% | 2.13 | WATCH |
| 5 | Zurich | $6.00 | 63.4 | 12% | 30% | 1.76 | WATCH |
| 1 | Spring Bean | $7.00 | 59.0 | 10% | 26% | - | WATCH |
| 6 | Iffycould | $10.00 | 57.3 | 8% | 21% | - | PASS |
| 7 | Miles ‘N’ Miles | $12.00 | 57.0 | 7% | 18% | - | PASS |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Est.Odds | Form | Class | C/D | Going | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spring Bean | 8 | $7.00 | x-1-5-2 | BM68>64 | 2/4 C, 1/3 D | 2/6 G | 59.0 | WATCH |
| 2 | Johnnie Pinch | 5 | $5.00 | 3-4-1-1-2-3 | BM64 | 1/15 C, 1/7 D | 1/16 G | 68.2 | VALUE |
| 3 | Just A Needs | 15 | $17.00 | 5-8-4-4 | Cup>64 | 1/10 C, 0/2 D | 3/16 G | 38.0 | PASS |
| 4 | Vino Novello | 7 | $4.50 | 1-5-1-2-3-7 | BM68>64 | 1/3 C, 1/2 D | 0/1 G | 67.0 | WATCH |
| 5 | Zurich | 13 | $6.00 | 1-6-2-6-1-8 | BM68>64 | 3/7 C, 3/6 D | 1/3 G | 63.4 | WATCH |
| 6 | Iffycould | 4 | $10.00 | 8-7-4-2-3 | Cup>64 | 0/3 C, 0/3 D | 1/5 G | 57.3 | PASS |
| 7 | Miles ‘N’ Miles | 6 | $12.00 | 4-5-1-5-5 | BM64 | 2/18 C, 2/6 D | 1/16 G | 57.0 | PASS |
| 8 | Moorlands Miss | 3 | $11.00 | 2-6-x-7-7 | BM60>64 | 1/4 C, 0/2 D | 1/1 G | 50.0 | PASS |
| 9 | Snow Eagle | 14 | $15.00 | 5-5-5-4-3-4 | BM60>64 | 0/3 C, 0/3 D | 1/1 G | 45.0 | PASS |
| 10 | Lindrum | 2 | $15.00 | x-5-3-8-8 | BM68>64 | 2/10 C, 2/6 D | 2/14 G | 44.0 | PASS |
| 11 | Mightymaxi | 1 | $17.00 | 6-5-x-6-4-5 | BM68>64 | 1/10 C, 1/6 D | 0/7 S | 36.0 | PASS |
| 12 | Speed Rock | 9 | $26.00 | 6-7-5-5-2-2 | CL2>64 | 1/22 C, 0/2 D | 1/24 G | 35.0 | PASS |
| 13 | Florence Glass | 10 | $13.00 | x-5-8-1-5 | 4th>64 | 1/7 C, 0/5 D | 0/1 G | 46.0 | PASS |
| 14 | Opalson | 11 | $41.00 | 8-9-7-4-8-9 | BM60>64 | 0/7 C, 0/4 D | 1/19 G | 22.0 | PASS |
| 15 | The Cast Off | 12 | $31.00 | 6-x-7-6 | BM64 | 0/1 C, 0/2 D | 0/6 S | 25.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Johnnie Pinch and Vino Novello rate highest on raw time comparisons at the distance; Zurich’s best 2100m figures at Launceston (133.15, 134.37) are competitive. Pace: MODERATE expected - no dominant leader in this field. Mid-race movers (Johnnie Pinch, Vino Novello) should benefit from a genuine tempo without extreme pressure. Class: Several dropping from BM68/Open class (Johnnie Pinch, Vino Novello, Zurich, Iffycould) - class relief at BM64 level is a significant positive. Spring Bean also drops from BM68. Bias: Good 3 with rain forecast - track may deteriorate. No strong bias detected (LOW confidence). Bias neutral for style and barrier.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Johnnie Pinch (#2) ranks top on composite scoring. Won at this C/D (2100m Launceston, BM60, 14 Jan) by 2.5L and placed 2nd in Open Hcp at 2150m (30 Jan). Outstanding place consistency (55% career, specialist score 1.74). Barrier 5 ideal in large field. Drops from Open Hcp class. Key concern: only 1 win from 16 Good track starts vs 2 from 10 on Soft - monitor if track stays Good. At $5+ each-way represents the best value proposition in this field.
Vino Novello (#4) has the highest career win rate (38%) and won impressively at this exact C/D (2100m BM64 Launceston, 29 Oct) by 1.25L. Exceptional place specialist score (2.13). However, last start 7th of 8 at 2100m BM68 (23 Jan) is a concern - only 27 days between runs. Still just 8 starts so could be improving, but the flop last time can’t be ignored.
Zurich (#5) is the standout C/D horse - 3 wins from 6 at 2100m, 3 wins from 7 at Launceston course. Won here 23 Jan (BM68, 134.37). But barrier 13 in a 15-horse field is a significant negative, and form is very up-and-down (1-6-2-6-1-8). Needs to produce his A-game.
KEY RISKS
- No market odds available - all edge/value calculations are estimated. Re-assess when markets open.
- Rain forecast - track rated Good 3 but could deteriorate. Johnnie Pinch (1/16 on Good) and Vino Novello (0/1 Good) both have concerning Good track records; paradoxically they may benefit if it wets up.
- Large field (15 runners) - wide barriers (Zurich 13, Snow Eagle 14, Just A Needs 15) severely disadvantaged over 2100m.
BETTING GUIDE (IF MARKETS OPEN)
| Horse | If odds >= | Action | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Pinch | $6.00 | BET | EW |
| Vino Novello | $5.50 | BET | EW |
| Zurich | $8.00 | BET | EW |
| Spring Bean | $9.00 | SMALL | EW |
No Kelly stake - awaiting market odds | score: 68.2/100 (top rated) | data: MEDIUM quality Source: sportsbetform.com.au (field/form) | Expert tips limited