Launceston R6 | 1200m CL4 Top Tote
Fri 20 Feb | 3:44pm | 10r | Good 3 | Rain
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #1 MAZZINI @ min $3.50 - 1.5u WIN VALUE: #8 GEEGEES MISSILE @ min $6.50 - 1.0u EW
Markets not yet open. Fair odds provided as minimum bet triggers.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Fair$ | Min$ | Score | Win% | Place% | Tier | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazzini | 3.33 | 3.50 | 74 | 30% | 62% | STRONG_VALUE | WIN |
| 6 | Swift Force | 5.00 | 5.50 | 65 | 20% | 48% | VALUE | WIN |
| 8 | Geegees Missile | 6.67 | 6.50 | 52 | 15% | 46% | VALUE | EW |
| 2 | Prince Of Khatun | 8.33 | 9.00 | 48 | 12% | 37% | VALUE | EW |
| 3 | Ozonica | 12.50 | 14.00 | 38 | 8% | 24% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Gladding | 16.67 | 18.00 | 35 | 6% | 18% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | SpFig | Pace | Class | Form | C/D | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazzini | 2 | 59.0 | 92 | GOOD | 82 | 41111 | 3/4 3/5 | 74 | STRONG |
| 6 | Swift Force | 3 | 56.0 | 88 | GOOD | 78 | 1x120 | 1/1 1/2 | 65 | VALUE |
| 8 | Geegees Missile | 5 | 55.5 | 82 | OK | 76 | 11133 | 1/2 1/3 | 52 | VALUE |
| 2 | Prince Of Khatun | 1 | 57.5 | 80 | OK | 76 | 22112 | 0/3 3/6 | 48 | VALUE |
| 3 | Ozonica | 10 | 57.5 | 75 | OK | 70 | 11520 | 0/1 2/3 | 38 | WATCH |
| 5 | Gladding | 8 | 57.0 | 70 | OK | 65 | 42100 | 0/2 1/1 | 35 | WATCH |
| 4 | Zambezi Blonde | 6 | 57.0 | 68 | POOR | 68 | 9x312 | 0/0 0/1 | 30 | WATCH |
| 9 | Bad Alibi | 7 | 55.0 | 65 | POOR | 60 | 84321 | 1/5 1/4 | 28 | PASS |
| 7 | Taroona | 4 | 56.0 | 62 | OK | 65 | 36210 | 1/4 1/3 | 25 | PASS |
| 10 | Agadoo | 9 | 54.0 | 55 | POOR | 55 | x2430 | 0/0 0/3 | 18 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Mazzini (92) holds clear speed figure advantage; won by 1.75L at course, 3.25L in Tas Guineas, and 5.25L in CL4. Swift Force (88) next best with 4.5L maiden win at Launceston 1100m.
Pace: MODERATE scenario. Mazzini and Swift Force both have early tactical speed from good barriers (2 and 3). Expect genuine pace without it being suicidal. On-pace runners favoured.
Class: Mazzini has won at higher levels (Tas Guineas, Ladbrokes Stakes) and drops to CL4. Swift Force won 3YO HCP at Hobart. Both have clear class edge. Prince Of Khatun and Geegees Missile have won at this level before. Bad Alibi and Agadoo rising sharply from maidens.
Bias: Good 3, neutral bias (LOW confidence). Rail position not specified. No significant bias adjustment applied.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Mazzini is the standout - 6 wins from 8 starts (75%), including stakes-level wins, dropping back to CL4. Has 3 wins from 4 starts at Launceston and 3 wins from 5 at 1200m. Inside barrier (2) suits with Kelvin Sanderson retaining the ride. Only query is last start 4th at Hobart (0.5L, returning from Guineas). All going record on soft so Good 3 is an unknown, but class should prevail.
Geegees Missile is the EW play as a STRONG PLACE SPECIALIST (score 2.78 - 100% place rate from 10 starts). Won CL3 at Launceston, 3rd in 3YO HCP behind Swift Force. At $6.50+ the each-way value is positive (+3.4% EW EV).
KEY RISKS
- Mazzini: No good track form - all 8 runs on soft. Good 3 is an unknown variable
- Swift Force: Only 3 career starts, lightly tested - could be anything at the price
- Market unavailable: All value assessments are conditional on opening prices
PLACE SPECIALISTS
| # | Horse | Place Rate | Expected | Specialist Score | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Geegees Missile | 100% | 36% | 2.78 | STRONG |
| 2 | Prince Of Khatun | 82% | 29% | 2.85 | STRONG |
fair_odds: $3.33 (Mazzini) | score: 74/100 | pace: MODERATE | data: sportsbetform.com.au