Launceston R7 | 1600m BM78 Top Tote
Fri 20 Feb | 4:19pm | 6r | Good 3
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #3 DURAZZO @ $2.50+ - 0.83u WIN VALUE: #4 CARTOON GRAVEYARD @ $8.00 - 1.0u EW
Durazzo only a WIN bet if available $2.50 or better. If shorter, PASS on win and play EW only on Cartoon Graveyard.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Durazzo | 2.50 | 72.5 | 42% | +5.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 0.83% |
| 1 | Steparty | 4.50 | 55.0 | 20% | 0.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Cartoon Graveyard | 8.00 | 48.0 | 13% | +4.0% | VALUE (EW) | 1.00% |
| 5 | Just Cruisin’ | 10.00 | 42.0 | 10% | 0.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Coal River | 13.00 | 35.0 | 7% | +4.0% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | First Accused | 15.00 | 28.0 | 8% | +5.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Durazzo | 6 | 2.50 | 92 | GOOD | 95 | 0% | Neutral | 72.5 | STRONG |
| 1 | Steparty | 4 | 4.50 | 84 | OK | 88 | 0% | Hot | 55.0 | WATCH |
| 4 | Cartoon Graveyard | 1 | 8.00 | 80 | GOOD | 82 | 0% | Neutral | 48.0 | VALUE |
| 5 | Just Cruisin’ | 5 | 10.00 | 78 | OK | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 42.0 | WATCH |
| 6 | Coal River | 2 | 13.00 | 74 | OK | 68 | 0% | Neutral | 35.0 | WATCH |
| 2 | First Accused | 3 | 15.00 | 72 | POOR | 80 | 0% | Cold | 28.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Durazzo best figure (92) is 8pts clear of Steparty (84). Won 11/16 career starts (69%) including 7/8 at Launceston. Class apart on figures. Pace: MODERATE shape expected - no confirmed leader. Durazzo and Just Cruisin’ likely sit midfield in the small field, Coal River and Cartoon Graveyard can use inside barriers to position. No sectional data to model precise pace map. Class: Durazzo drops from WFA/Listed (95) to BM78 (82) - significant class relief. Steparty also drops from WFA but first time at Launceston. Cartoon Graveyard ran 6th in Chester Manifold (Listed) at Flemington - has the metro class. Coal River rises sharply from CL4 (68) to BM78 - the biggest query. Bias: Track bias confidence LOW. Good 3 with rain forecast may deteriorate. No barrier or style bias detected. Rail position not specified.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Durazzo is the standout - a dominant Launceston performer (7/8 at the course) dropping from Listed/WFA grade to BM78. His speed figures are 8+ points clear of the field. The only concern is likely short odds; at $2.50+ he offers marginal value (+5% edge, fair odds $2.38), but anything shorter than $2.30 is an underlay. Second selection Cartoon Graveyard offers genuine EW value at $8.00 (EW EV +9.7%, place prob 42.5%) - he drew barrier 1, has metro Listed form at Flemington, and is a consistent placer (61% place rate career).
KEY RISKS
- Durazzo: Wide barrier (6 of 6) in small field is manageable but not ideal. Last start 2nd to Steparty in WFA - can he turn tables? Only 2 starts at 1600m (both wins, but limited sample).
- Market odds unknown: No live odds available at briefing time. All edge calculations are estimates - must verify at race time. If Durazzo is $1.80 or shorter, this is a PASS on win betting.
- Rain: Forecast rain could shift Good 3 to Soft. Durazzo handles soft (5/8 wins), but track deterioration adds uncertainty.
EACH-WAY ANALYSIS
| Horse | Win Odds | Win% | Place% | EW EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cartoon Graveyard | $8.00 | 13% | 42.5% | +9.7% | EW VALUE |
| Just Cruisin’ | $10.00 | 10% | 35.0% | +6.9% | EW VALUE |
| Coal River | $13.00 | 7% | 25.4% | - | WATCH |
durazzo: fair $2.38, edge +5% @ $2.50 | cartoon graveyard: ew ev +9.7% @ $8 | 6-runner field, verify odds at race time