Caulfield R10 | 1400m BM84
Sat 21 Feb | 5:35pm | 10r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #4 NARBOLD @ $12.00 - 1.3u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Stealth Of Night | $2.50 | 60.7 | 24% | -40% | WATCH | - |
| 13 | Two Wolves | $4.20 | 58.8 | 19% | -20% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Harry’s Yacht | $6.00 | 69.8 | 16% | -4% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Porter | $7.00 | 65.7 | 9% | -37% | PASS | - |
| 4 | Narbold | $12.00 | 66.5 | 13% | +56% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.3u |
| 3 | Kings Valley | $16.00 | 65.2 | 7% | +12% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harry’s Yacht | 1 | $6 | 101.7 | OK | 82 | 0% | Neutral | 69.8 | WATCH |
| 2 | Black Storm | 9 | $26 | 93.0 | POOR | 78 | 0% | Cold | 58.4 | PASS |
| 3 | Kings Valley | 5 | $16 | 103.0 | OK | 88 | 0% | Hot | 65.2 | WATCH |
| 4 | Narbold | 2 | $12 | 98.9 | GOOD | 88 | 0% | Hot | 66.5 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 5 | Place Of Gold | 3 | $67 | 90.0 | POOR | 78 | 0% | Cold | 56.3 | PASS |
| 6 | Porter | 7 | $7 | 98.9 | GOOD | 74 | 0% | Neutral | 65.7 | WATCH |
| 9 | Autumn Mystery | 6 | $26 | 92.0 | OK | 84 | 0% | Neutral | 56.6 | PASS |
| 10 | Prancing Spirit | 11 | $31 | 93.5 | POOR | 84 | 0% | Neutral | 53.7 | PASS |
| 12 | Stealth Of Night | 12 | $2.50 | 98.2 | GOOD | 70 | 0% | Hot | 60.7 | WATCH |
| 13 | Two Wolves | 10 | $4.20 | 95.8 | OK | 70 | 0% | Hot | 58.8 | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Harry’s Yacht has the best raw figures (101.7 avg, Geelong 1400m win), but the race was weaker. Kings Valley posted 104.0 at Moonee Valley 1600m but that was over further. Narbold and Porter share 98.9 from different class levels.
Pace: MODERATE shape expected with only Prancing Spirit as a genuine leader. Suits on-pace and stalker types. Stealth Of Night and Porter likely to press forward; Two Wolves and Harry’s Yacht sit midfield. Narbold is a strong finisher who can pounce from midfield with the moderate tempo.
Class: The key separator. Narbold ran 2nd beaten 0.01L in BM88 at Randwick - the best class form in the field. Kings Valley won BM88 at Randwick but 129 days ago. Stealth Of Night and Two Wolves are both rising 14pts from BM70 - significant query on both.
Bias: Neutral bias at Caulfield with low confidence. Rain around but track still Good 4. Inside barriers hold a marginal advantage in 1400m races at Caulfield.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Narbold at $12 represents the strongest value play. He has BM88 form (2nd beaten a nose at Randwick to a subsequent Group winner), won his last start at this course in BM78 beating Black Storm, and drops from a Waller-trained NSW campaign into a field where the top two in the market (Stealth Of Night and Two Wolves) are both making massive class jumps from BM70. Barrier 2 is ideal for the moderate tempo expected. Ben Melham is a strong booking. The $12 price implies ~8% probability; our model gives him 13% (fair odds ~$7.70). The each-way option at $2.88 place provides additional coverage given his 72% place rate from 18 starts.
KEY RISKS
- Narbold’s Flemington 11th (10/01) was a poor run - may indicate inconsistency post-spell
- Stealth Of Night’s progressive profile and 100% place record may justify short price on upside alone
kelly: 1.3% | ev: +$0.56/u | score: 66.5/100