Caulfield R6 | 1400m Listed (Top Tote)
Sat 21 Feb | 3:05pm | 9r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #8 UNTIL VALHALLA @ $8.00 - 0.43u EW VALUE: #1 BENAGIL @ $11.00 - 0.80u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Damask Rose | 2.80 | 76.7 | 22% | -8.2% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Paradise City | 4.80 | 71.6 | 18% | -0.1% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Bossy Benita | 4.60 | 67.8 | 15% | -3.4% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | Until Valhalla | 8.00 | 63.7 | 14% | +3.8% | VALUE | 0.43 |
| 1 | Benagil | 11.00 | 63.4 | 12% | +4.3% | VALUE | 0.80 |
| 7 | Miss Aria | 13.00 | 55.4 | 8% | +1.5% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Damask Rose | 2 | 2.80 | 101.0 | GOOD | 120 (drop) | 0% | Hot | 76.7 | WATCH |
| 4 | Paradise City | 5 | 4.80 | 98.0 | GOOD | 105 (rise) | 0% | Hot | 71.6 | WATCH |
| 9 | Bossy Benita | 6 | 4.60 | 103.3* | GOOD | 105 (rise) | 0% | Neutral | 67.8 | WATCH |
| 8 | Until Valhalla | 3 | 8.00 | 95.8 | OK | 75 (rise) | 0% | Hot | 63.7 | VALUE |
| 1 | Benagil | 7 | 11.00 | 99.1 | OK | 120 (drop) | 0% | Warm | 63.4 | VALUE |
| 7 | Miss Aria | 8 | 13.00 | 99.7 | OK | 105 | 0% | Hot | 55.4 | WATCH |
| 3 | Jennilala | 1 | 26.00 | ~88 | OK | 105 | 0% | Neutral | 53.2 | WATCH |
| 6 | Samangu | 10 | 23.00 | 100.0* | OK | 105 | 0% | Neutral | 52.4 | PASS |
| 10 | Butternut Princess | 4 | 41.00 | ~85 | OK | 75 (rise) | 0% | Neutral | 45.5 | PASS |
*Bossy Benita’s 103.3 from sprint distances; Samangu’s 100.0 inflated by 1200m figure
ANALYSIS
Speed: Damask Rose (101.0) and Bossy Benita (103.3*) top-rated but Bossy Benita’s figures are from sprints. Paradise City most consistent at 1400m (97.6 consistency score). Until Valhalla lowest major contender figures (95.8). Pace: MODERATE scenario with Bossy Benita and Samangu likely forward. Stalkers (Paradise City, Damask Rose, Until Valhalla) well placed. No speed-on bias to assist closers. Class: Damask Rose and Benagil dropping from Group 1 to Listed - significant advantage (+10% probability adjustment each). Paradise City, Bossy Benita, and Until Valhalla all rising in class. Butternut Princess faces steepest class jump (BM70 to Listed). Bias: Neutral track bias (LOW confidence). No style or barrier advantage detected.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Until Valhalla (#8) rates as an each-way value play at $8. Perfect 2-from-2 at Caulfield is the standout stat - this horse loves the track. Ciaron Maher has him peaking after a BM84 win last start, and barrier 3 ensures a soft run in transit. The class rise to Listed is the question mark, but the Caulfield affinity and Maher’s placement suggest readiness.
Benagil (#1) offers the best edge in the race at $11. A Group 1 performer (Mackinnon, Empire Rose, Weekend Hussler) dropping to Listed level with Damian Lane aboard. The 105-day spell is the concern, but two jump outs (won the most recent) suggest fitness. The class drop is worth at least 10% probability boost, making $11 genuine each-way value.
Damask Rose (#5) is the most likely winner but $2.80 offers no value given 0/4 at Caulfield and 0/2 at 1400m. The C/D blank is a significant concern for a short-priced favourite.
KEY RISKS
- Until Valhalla’s speed figures (95.8) are 5+ points below top contenders - may simply not be fast enough at Listed level
- Benagil returning from 105-day spell - first-up record needs monitoring, form pre-spell was inconsistent (3-x-3-7-x)
- Damask Rose’s class is undeniable and Williams/Walker may overcome the C/D concerns at short odds
kelly: 1.23u total | ev: +$0.15/u avg | best score: 76.7/100 (Damask Rose - no bet)