Doomben R6 | 1350m BM65
Sat 21 Feb | 4:07pm | 11r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #3 CARRAVILLA @ $7.00 - 0.5u EW VALUE: #11 NIGHTCAPPED @ $12.00 - 0.45u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Time Of My Life | 3.50 | 62.0 | 28% | -2% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Carravilla | 7.00 | 52.5 | 16% | +12% | VALUE | 0.50% |
| 11 | Nightcapped | 12.00 | 48.0 | 10% | +20% | VALUE | 0.45% |
| 1 | Scud | 4.40 | 46.0 | 16% | -30% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Greyzous | 3.80 | 44.0 | 18% | -32% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Creativity Miss | 9.00 | 32.0 | 5% | -44% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scud | 4 | 4.40 | 106 | OK | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 46.0 | WATCH |
| 3 | Carravilla | 13 | 7.00 | 106 | GOOD | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 52.5 | VALUE |
| 4 | Greyzous | 15 | 3.80 | 107 | POOR | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 44.0 | WATCH |
| 5 | Creativity Miss | 8 | 9.00 | 95 | OK | 65 | 0% | Neutral | 32.0 | PASS |
| 7 | Kickatinalong | 16 | 61 | 88 | POOR | 70 | 0% | Cold | 18.0 | PASS |
| 8 | Miss De Medici | 11 | 35 | 90 | OK | 62 | 0% | Neutral | 22.0 | PASS |
| 9 | Surreal Ascot | 5 | 35 | 92 | OK | 70 | 0% | Neutral | 24.0 | PASS |
| 10 | From This Moment | 19 | 34 | 88 | POOR | 65 | 0% | Neutral | 20.0 | PASS |
| 11 | Nightcapped | 3 | 12 | 105 | GOOD | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 48.0 | VALUE |
| 12 | Time Of My Life | 6 | 3.50 | 105 | GOOD | 73 | 0% | Hot | 62.0 | WATCH |
| 17 | Echo Hunter | 9 | 51 | 93 | OK | 68 | 0% | Neutral | 25.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Greyzous (107) has the best raw figure but it was set at 1200m - untried at this trip. Time Of My Life (105) and Carravilla (106) produced their figures closer to this distance. Nightcapped (105) ran a strong figure winning BM68 at 1400m last start.
Pace: MODERATE shape expected. Scud (bar 4) and Greyzous (bar 15) likely to vie for the lead, but Greyzous will burn energy getting across from the extreme wide draw. This sets up well for on-pace runners in good barriers and closers. Carravilla and Nightcapped both benefit.
Class: Time Of My Life is rising from CL1 to BM65 - a significant jump despite progressive profile. Carravilla has won at CL3 level at this track and placed in CL4 at Eagle Farm. Nightcapped drops from a BM68 win. Scud has contested higher classes (CL6/NMW) but without course success.
Bias: Neutral bias confidence is LOW. No significant style or barrier advantage detected from recent Doomben meetings. Rain forecast may add sting to the track later in the day.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#3 Carravilla (EW @ $7.00) is the standout value play. This horse has a PERFECT Doomben record (2 starts, 2 wins) including a CL3 win over this 1350m trip just 5 weeks ago. The form line reads 1-3-x-1-1-2 with wins at BM65 (Sunshine Coast) and CL3 (Doomben). Wide barrier (13) is the main concern but with only 11 runners and a moderate pace expected, the draw is manageable. At $7.00 this is over the odds for a proven course specialist with rising form.
#11 Nightcapped (EW @ $12.00) offers significant each-way value after winning BM68 at Sunshine Coast last start by 1.91L (8 days ago). Drops in class to BM65 with an ideal barrier (3), and the 52kg weight allocation is a significant advantage. The Ipswich/Sunshine Coast provincial form translates well to Doomben. At $12.00, with place odds of $3.00, the each-way value is strong even with some query on metro Doomben form.
KEY RISKS
- Carravilla barrier 13: Wide draw could cost ground on the tight Doomben circuit, especially if pace is slow
- Nightcapped metro query: Winning form is provincial (Sunshine Coast/Ipswich) - Doomben is a clear step up in competition depth
- Rain factor: Track currently Good 4 but rain forecast could shift conditions, benefiting soft-track performers (Nightcapped has a 3/12 soft record vs Carravilla’s 1/9)
carravilla: kelly 0.50% | ev: +$0.12/u | score: 52.5/100 nightcapped: kelly 0.45% | ev: +$0.20/u | score: 48.0/100