Doomben R9 | 1600m BM78 Top Tote
Sat 21 Feb | 6:03pm | 11r | Soft 6 | Rail out 2m
ACTION
VALUE: #8 I’M HEROIC @ $18 - 0.8u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | SpFig | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Aratiri | $3.40 | 102.8 | 24.3% | -17.4% | WATCH | - |
| 15 | Pierata’s Gem | $3.90 | 106.3 | 20.0% | -21.9% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Bengal Diamond | $6.00 | 101.8 | 15.6% | -6.4% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Rock Hard Love | $6.50 | 102.9 | 14.7% | -4.3% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Make A Call | $6.00 | 105.4 | 11.4% | -31.8% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | I’m Heroic | $18.00 | 104.1 | 6.3% | +13.9% | VALUE | 0.82% |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Soft | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Aratiri | 13 | 3.40 | 102.8 | GOOD | 78 | 62% | 55 | 61.4 | WATCH |
| 15 | Pierata’s Gem | 3 | 3.90 | 106.3 | OK | 82 | 63% | 70 | 72.9 | WATCH |
| 7 | Bengal Diamond | 9 | 6.00 | 101.8 | GOOD | 82 | 62% | 50 | 61.7 | WATCH |
| 5 | Rock Hard Love | 8 | 6.50 | 102.9 | OK | 82 | 100% | 45 | 62.0 | WATCH |
| 3 | Make A Call | 2 | 6.00 | 105.4 | GOOD | 78 | 17% | 75 | 68.9 | WATCH |
| 8 | I’m Heroic | 7 | 18.00 | 104.1 | OK | 76 | 70% | 70 | 62.6 | VALUE |
| 10 | Take A Picture | 1 | 23.00 | 104.1 | OK | 74 | 67% | 35 | 63.1 | WATCH |
| 1 | Wapiti | 5 | 46.00 | 102.5 | OK | 84 | 48% | 35 | 60.1 | PASS |
| 12 | Farnborough | 4 | 27.00 | 97.6 | OK | 78 | 67% | 40 | 52.5 | PASS |
| 6 | Absolute Sunshine | 10 | 31.00 | 98.5 | POOR | 78 | 100% | 40 | 52.2 | PASS |
| 9 | Punjabi Landing | 12 | 67.00 | 97.1 | POOR | 82 | 57% | 45 | 44.7 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Pierata’s Gem (106.3) leads on figures but all at sprint distances (1300-1400m) - untested at 1600m. Make A Call (105.4) and I’m Heroic (104.1) next best with proven figures at the trip.
Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. Bengal Diamond and Aratiri likely to be forward. Make A Call to stalk. I’m Heroic and Rock Hard Love to settle mid-field. No genuine speed-on horses, which should suit on-pacers on the soft.
Class: Aratiri rising sharply from CL4/BM65 wins. Make A Call up from BM70. Bengal Diamond and Rock Hard Love at level (BM78). I’m Heroic rising from CL5 - the class rise is a query but soft form compensates.
Bias: Soft 6 track with rail out 2m. Key discriminator today. Make A Call 0/6 on soft is a critical concern despite top speed figure. Rock Hard Love (3/10, 100% place) and Bengal Diamond (4/13, 62%) handle it best of the fancied runners.
SELECTION RATIONALE
I’m Heroic at $18 represents the only positive-edge play in the race. This 4yo gelding has strong credentials on rain-affected ground (2 wins, 5 places from 10 soft starts) and the Desleigh Forster/Vlad Duric combination is a potent one at Doomben. His 2nd at Eagle Farm on soft (CL5, beaten 0.64L) was a strong run, and the 105.4 speed figure from Gold Coast on soft shows he rates when conditions suit. The last-start 10th (Doomben, Good 4) should be forgiven as a dry-track failure. At $18 in an 11-horse field, the each-way proposition is attractive with $4.00 the place.
The two market leaders - Aratiri ($3.40) and Pierata’s Gem ($3.90) - are both talented but offer no value. Aratiri is progressive but rising 3 classes in one hit from BM65 and drawn widest (barrier 13). Pierata’s Gem has the best speed figures but has never raced beyond 1400m.
KEY RISKS
- I’m Heroic last-start 10th/10 may indicate fitness concerns (despite being explainable by track preference)
- Rising from CL5 to BM78 is a significant class jump - needs the soft ground to offset
kelly: 0.82% | ev: +$0.14/u | score: 62.6/100 | soft track key factor