Morphettville R5 | 1050m Listed Cinderella Stakes
Sat 21 Feb | 3:17pm | 10r | Good 4 | Rain 5C
ACTION
NO BET - Favourite well found; limited edge at current prices across all contenders. Juvenile race with 6 debutants creates high uncertainty.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rebel Tuesday | $2.20 | 66.7 | 36% | -3.8% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | La Gitana | $3.10 | 63.8 | 24% | -5.6% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Never Ordinary | $4.20 | 54.0 | 18% | -4.4% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Aryna | $15.00 | 53.2 | 7% | +4.7% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | Intimus | $21.00 | 50.3 | 5% | +4.8% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | She’s Iconnic | $23.00 | 38.0 | 4% | -5.3% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rebel Tuesday | 2 | $2.20 | 101.9 | GOOD | 68 | 0% | Neutral | 66.7 | WATCH |
| 2 | La Gitana | 7 | $3.10 | 102.0 | GOOD | 73 | 0% | Hot | 63.8 | WATCH |
| 9 | Never Ordinary | 1 | $4.20 | N/A | OK | - | 0% | Cold | 54.0 | WATCH |
| 6 | Aryna | 5 | $15.00 | N/A | OK | - | 0% | Neutral | 53.2 | WATCH |
| 8 | Intimus | 11 | $21.00 | N/A | POOR | - | 0% | Cold | 50.3 | WATCH |
| 3 | Image Artist | 6 | $35.00 | 102.7 | OK | 68 | 0% | Cold | 45.0 | WATCH |
| 11 | She’s Iconnic | 3 | $23.00 | N/A | OK | - | 0% | Cold | 38.0 | PASS |
| 4 | Tully Hart | 4 | $91.00 | 102.0 | OK | 68 | 0% | Cold | 36.0 | PASS |
| 10 | Pretty Baby | 8 | $91.00 | N/A | OK | - | 0% | Cold | 30.0 | PASS |
| 7 | Flying Fury | 9 | $61.00 | N/A | POOR | - | 0% | Cold | 28.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Rebel Tuesday (101.9), La Gitana (102.0) and Image Artist (102.7) have comparable figures but all from weaker 2YO races. No speed standout at Listed level. Pace: CONTESTED shape with Rebel Tuesday and Never Ordinary both wanting to press forward; favours midfield runners like La Gitana (+0.06 closer advantage). Class: All runners rising sharply to Listed level. La Gitana has best prior class (G3 Chairman’s Stakes 3rd) but was beaten 3L. Rebel Tuesday only proved at 2YO HCP level. Bias: Neutral track bias (low confidence). Rail position not specified. Rain falling but track still Good 4.
SELECTION RATIONALE
No bet recommended. Rebel Tuesday is the clear leader on form (only C/D winner in the field, 100% place record from 3 starts) but is fully priced at $2.20 with an implied probability of 45% vs our modelled 36%. La Gitana has the class form (G3 placed behind subsequent winner Big Sky at Caulfield) but $3.10 doesn’t offer enough value for a filly with just one race start stepping into a Listed field. Never Ordinary’s 6.77L Morphettville trial win is spectacular but trials don’t always translate to race day, and $4.20 prices in much of that expectation already. With 6 debutants in a 10-runner field, this race has extremely high uncertainty that isn’t adequately compensated at any price point.
KEY RISKS
- Rain and 5C temperature could change track conditions; no wet form for any runner
- Six debutants create unpredictable pace dynamics and form uncertainty
- Never Ordinary’s trial form may be misleading (weak trial field, no raceday pressure)
EXPERT SUPPORT
| Horse | Sources | Support |
|---|---|---|
| Rebel Tuesday | 4/4 | 100% (top pick all sources) |
| Never Ordinary | 3/4 | 75% |
| Aryna | 2/4 | 50% |
| La Gitana | 2/4 | 50% |
Sources: backawinner.com.au, sportnation.nz, bets.com.au, joiedeviefarms.com
no bet | ev: n/a | confidence: low (2YO race, 6 debutants)