Morphettville R7 | 2600m BM100
Sat 21 Feb | 4:27pm | 15r | Good 4 | Rain 7C
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #2 KOMACHI @ $5.00 - 1.0u WIN STRONG_VALUE: #14 CRIMSON VINE @ $11.00/$3.10 - 1.35u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Komachi | 5.00 | 70.8 | 23% | +15% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.0% |
| 6 | Samuel Langhorne | 8.00 | 73.2 | 17% | +36% | STRONG_VALUE | - |
| 12 | Arugamama | 7.50 | 71.4 | 15% | +13% | STRONG_VALUE | - |
| 14 | Crimson Vine | 11.00 | 69.8 | 14% | +54% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.35% |
| 1 | Bold Soul | 5.00 | 68.8 | 14% | -30% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Highland Bling | 5.50 | 66.0 | 12% | -34% | WATCH | - |
| 16 | Coorong Tycoon | 14.00 | 63.7 | 8% | +12% | VALUE | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bold Soul | 13 | 5.00 | 102.4 | OK | 98 | 0% | Neutral | 68.8 | WATCH |
| 2 | Komachi | 12 | 5.00 | 97.2 | GOOD | 79 | 0% | Hot | 70.8 | STRONG |
| 4 | Mr Waterville | 19 | 17.00 | 90.0 | OK | 70 | 0% | Neutral | 42.0 | WATCH |
| 5 | Kirkliston Blu | 5 | 21.00 | 93.0 | GOOD | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 45.0 | WATCH |
| 6 | Samuel Langhorne | 14 | 8.00 | 102.0 | POOR | 103 | 0% | Neutral | 73.2 | STRONG |
| 7 | Hasta La War | 1 | 151.00 | 85.0 | OK | 76 | 0% | Cold | 28.0 | PASS |
| 8 | El James | 10 | 26.00 | 98.5 | OK | 62 | 0% | Neutral | 48.0 | WATCH |
| 9 | Highland Bling | 6 | 5.50 | 97.0 | POOR | 73 | 0% | Neutral | 66.0 | STRONG |
| 11 | Conni Island | 2 | 51.00 | 88.0 | GOOD | 68 | 0% | Neutral | 38.0 | WATCH |
| 12 | Arugamama | 8 | 7.50 | 98.5 | POOR | 92 | 0% | Hot | 71.4 | STRONG |
| 13 | Eventually | 4 | 35.00 | 94.0 | OK | 80 | 0% | Neutral | 45.0 | WATCH |
| 14 | Crimson Vine | 7 | 11.00 | 97.1 | GOOD | 81 | 0% | Neutral | 69.8 | STRONG |
| 15 | Isuspectjeu | 11 | 34.00 | 96.7 | OK | 69 | 0% | Neutral | 52.0 | VALUE |
| 16 | Coorong Tycoon | 9 | 14.00 | 96.3 | GOOD | 67 | 0% | Hot | 63.7 | VALUE |
| 18 | Full Of Courage | 15 | 71.00 | 93.0 | OK | 66 | 0% | Neutral | 40.0 | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Bold Soul (102.4) and Samuel Langhorne (102.0) have the best raw figures, 5pts clear of the rest. Arugamama (98.5) and Komachi (97.2) lead the next tier. Pace: MODERATE shape with 2 leaders (Kirkliston Blu, Conni Island) - suits stalkers/on-pace runners. Komachi and Crimson Vine ideally positioned; back markers Arugamama and Samuel Langhorne face -2% disadvantage. Class: Samuel Langhorne is the only horse dropping (Listed to BM100, +5%). Most of the field rising sharply. Komachi’s Premiers Plate win (beating this field) mitigates the BM76 class concern. Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). No adjustment applied.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#2 Komachi is the selection based on exceptional recent form (1-2-1), proven at Morphettville (4 wins from 9 starts), and the fact the Premiers Plate win two weeks ago was against several re-opponents. Won the Strathalbyn Cup 2050m runner-up and dominated at 1800m/2500m locally. The 2600m is a new test but the staying pedigree and current fitness make this the most likely winner. Market correctly prices equal favourite with Bold Soul but Komachi’s superior current form and course record provide the edge.
#14 Crimson Vine ran 2nd to Komachi in the Premiers Plate (beaten 0.47L) and won the BM78 2000m start before that. At $11 she offers significant each-way value on the expectation she can place again. Barrier 7 and stalking pattern suit the moderate pace scenario. The Sarah Rutten stable has her peaking.
KEY RISKS
- Komachi untested beyond 2050m in proper races (2500m win was at BM78) - the 2600m at BM100 is a genuine stamina test
- Wide barriers (12) for Komachi may cost in a 15-horse field, though less critical at 2600m
- Samuel Langhorne has superior figures and class but barrier 14 and coming off a 21-day break may limit his punch
kelly: 1.0% WIN + 1.35% EW | ev: +$0.15/u + $0.54/u | scores: 70.8 + 69.8/100