Morphettville R9 | 1200m BM78
Sat 21 Feb | 5:49pm | 12r | Good 4
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #4 CLARENCE @ $5.50 - 1.2u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clarence | $5.50 | 68.8 | 17% | +6.5% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.2% |
| 13 | Major Rumble | $3.40 | 67.7 | 24% | +3.4% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Super Lad | $6.50 | 63.5 | 12% | -3.8% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Star Sirius | $7.50 | 54.2 | 11% | -4.2% | WATCH | - |
| 12 | Cork Harbour | $10.00 | 52.1 | 10% | +0.0% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Yasuke | $10.00 | 44.8 | 8% | -12.0% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Three Rings | 5 | $15 | 88 | OK | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 35.2 | PASS |
| 2 | Del. Shecky | 17 | $14 | 90 | OK | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 37.8 | PASS |
| 3 | Ravalli | 7 | $17 | 86 | POOR | 72 | 0% | Neutral | 33.5 | PASS |
| 4 | Clarence | 10 | $5.50 | 106 | OK | 81 | 0% | Neutral | 68.8 | S_VALUE |
| 6 | Super Lad | 8 | $6.50 | 95* | GOOD | 68 | 0% | Neutral | 63.5 | WATCH |
| 7 | Yasuke | 1 | $10 | 101 | POOR | 78 | 0% | Neutral | 44.8 | WATCH |
| 8 | Howl | 9 | $19 | 92 | OK | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 38.4 | PASS |
| 9 | Cascade Mtn | 3 | $126 | 78 | POOR | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 18.5 | PASS |
| 11 | Star Sirius | 13 | $7.50 | 105 | OK | 76 | 0% | Hot | 54.2 | WATCH |
| 12 | Cork Harbour | 2 | $10 | 101 | OK | 72 | 0% | Neutral | 52.1 | WATCH |
| 13 | Major Rumble | 6 | $3.40 | 106 | OK | 72 | 0% | Neutral | 67.7 | WATCH |
| 16 | Startide | 11 | $34 | 88 | OK | 68 | 0% | Neutral | 30.8 | PASS |
*Super Lad speed figure estimated from 1600m races; no recent 1200m form.
ANALYSIS
Speed: Clarence (106) and Major Rumble (106) share the best figures, 1pt+ clear of Star Sirius (105) - Clarence more consistent run to run. Pace: SLOW shape predicted - no genuine leaders, on-pace runners Super Lad and Delightful Shecky likely to roll forward but without genuine speed pressure. Class: Clarence is the only runner at BM78 level; Major Rumble, Super Lad, Star Sirius, and Cork Harbour all rising 8-12pts in class - significant barrier to overcome. Bias: Neutral track bias (low confidence data). No style or barrier bias detected.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Clarence is the clear value play at $5.50. He is the only runner proven at BM78 class, carrying the best consistent speed figures in the field (105.9, 105.7 best 2 of 3). His form reads well: 3-4-2-5-3 with both recent Morphettville runs in strong BM70-78 races. The 3rd at this track/class 14 days ago (beaten 0.12L) is excellent recent form. He handles Good ground (15s: 2w 8p) and has 13 course starts for 2 wins and extensive experience. The wide-ish barrier 10 in a slow-pace race is his main risk, but the Will Clarken stable also has Yasuke (barrier 1) who may provide a lead reference. At $5.50 he offers genuine each-way value against a favourite (Major Rumble) who is rising sharply in class from BM68 level.
Major Rumble ($3.40 fav) has the talent - his BM68 speed figure of 106.1 is the single best run in the field - but he faces a 10pt class rise into a BM78 metropolitan race with only 7 career starts. His only 1200m win was at Murray Bridge in a weaker field. At $3.40 the price is too short for the class risk. WATCH only.
KEY RISKS
- Clarence barrier 10 in a predicted slow-pace race may leave him further back than ideal
- Super Lad ($6.50) on winning streak with trial win is the danger if pace holds for on-pacers - but untested at 1200m in this class
kelly: 1.2% | ev: +$0.07/u | score: 68.8/100