Rosehill R10 | 1100m BM94
Sat 21 Feb | 5:55pm | 11r (3 scr) | Soft 5 | Rail Out 5m
ACTION
VALUE: #7 HAWKER HALL @ $2.90 - 1.2u WIN VALUE: #11 COSMONOVA @ $17.00 - 1.1u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawker Hall | 2.90 | 58.2 | 25% | +9.5% | VALUE | 1.2% |
| 11 | Cosmonova | 17.00 | 52.4 | 8% | +30.0% | VALUE | 1.1% |
| 9 | Tonkin | 2.00 | 48.5 | 30% | -20.0% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Kerguelen | 9.00 | 44.1 | 10% | -1.1% | WATCH | - |
| 12 | Lulumon | 14.00 | 43.8 | 8% | +5.7% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | South Of India | 21.00 | 41.2 | 6% | +21.2% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawker Hall | 13 | 2.90 | 106 | GOOD | 84 | -3% | Hot | 58.2 | VALUE |
| 9 | Tonkin | 6 | 2.00 | 102 | OK | 88 | 0% | Neutral | 48.5 | WATCH |
| 11 | Cosmonova | 1 | 17.00 | 102 | GOOD | 78 | +3% | Neutral | 52.4 | VALUE |
| 2 | Kerguelen | 11 | 9.00 | 104 | POOR | 82 | -2% | Neutral | 44.1 | WATCH |
| 12 | Lulumon | 2 | 14.00 | 99 | OK | 76 | +3% | Neutral | 43.8 | WATCH |
| 4 | South Of India | 4 | 21.00 | 98 | GOOD | 83 | 0% | Neutral | 41.2 | WATCH |
| 3 | Bandi’s Boy | 12 | 46.00 | 97 | OK | 86 | -2% | Cold | 28.5 | PASS |
| 1 | Les Vampires | 8 | 126.00 | 88 | POOR | 82 | 0% | Cold | 22.1 | PASS |
| 13 | Kreon | 10 | 41.00 | 93 | OK | 76 | -1% | Cold | 30.2 | PASS |
| 10 | Wondereach | 5 | 51.00 | 90 | OK | 76 | 0% | Cold | 27.8 | PASS |
| 14 | She Within | 3 | 126.00 | 86 | OK | 68 | +2% | Cold | 24.3 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Hawker Hall clear top figure (106), Kerguelen (104) and Tonkin/Cosmonova (102) next tier; 4pt gap to rest of field. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected with 3 on-pace runners (Hawker Hall, Cosmonova, South Of India); suits leaders, disadvantages closers like Kerguelen. Class: Tonkin highest rated (88) but stepping up from BM78; South Of India (83) dropping from BM100 win; Hawker Hall (84) rising from BM88 wins. Bias: Rail out 5m - inside barriers favored on Soft 5; Cosmonova (1) and Lulumon (2) benefit; Hawker Hall (13) and Kerguelen (11) disadvantaged.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Hawker Hall has the highest speed figures in the field (106), won at Rosehill 1100m in BM88 (63.44s), and has James McDonald aboard. His Gold Coast CL6 1200m win (1.94L) showed strong acceleration. The wide barrier (13) is the key concern but McDonald is elite at overcoming draws, and the rail being out 5m mitigates the disadvantage. At $2.90 in an 11-runner field with a genuine 25% chance, there’s ~9.5% edge.
Cosmonova is the value play at $17.00. Barrier 1 with rail out 5m is ideal for an on-pace runner in moderate tempo. She ran within 0.06L at Rosehill in the Nivison (G3 field) and has a 10/19 place strike rate at the course. Two barrier trials suggest fitness. The 8% win probability at $17 offers significant each-way value with place odds of $3.25.
KEY RISKS
- Tonkin ($2.00 fav) is untested on soft tracks (all 7 career starts on Good) - if she handles the Soft 5, she could dominate given her perfect place record and class rise
- Hawker Hall barrier 13 in 1100m sprint means he needs luck early despite McDonald’s skill; if trapped wide, speed figures become irrelevant
- Kerguelen is the class danger resuming - his heavy/wet track record (4W from 6 heavy starts) is elite, but two moderate trials and a closing style in moderate pace work against
EXPERT CONSENSUS
| Source | #1 Pick | #2 Pick | #3 Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Herald | Hawker Hall | Cosmonova (EW) | Kerguelen |
| TABtouch (Nelson) | Tonkin | Lulumon | Kerguelen |
| Aus Sports Betting | Tonkin | Hawker Hall | Kerguelen |
| SCCG Management | Tonkin | Hawker Hall | Kerguelen |
Support: Tonkin 75% (3/4), Hawker Hall 75% (3/4), Kerguelen 100% (4/4 as top 3), Cosmonova 25% (1/4).
#7 kelly: 1.2% | ev: +$0.28/u | score: 58.2/100 #11 kelly: 1.1% | ev: +$5.10/u | score: 52.4/100