Rosehill R2 | 1300m BM78
Sat 21 Feb | 1:05pm | 13r (6 scratched from 19) | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #2 NEW PHAROAH @ $8.50/$2.60 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | New Pharoah | 8.50 | 63.0 | 12% | +2.4% | VALUE | 0.5% |
| 6 | Solitario | 6.00 | 60.0 | 15% | +1.4% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Rose Aye | 2.90 | 58.0 | 20% | -8.1% | WATCH | - |
| 14 | Andale Andale | 11.00 | 55.0 | 9% | +1.6% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Micro Mikki | 8.00 | 53.0 | 10% | -0.2% | WATCH | - |
| 15 | Shezain | 11.00 | 49.0 | 8% | +0.6% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Pace | Class | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highway Strip | 6 | 9.50 | OK | 76 | Neutral | 48 | PASS |
| 2 | New Pharoah | 1 | 8.50 | GOOD | 78 | Hot | 63 | VALUE |
| 3 | Atmospheric Rock | 10 | 26.00 | POOR | 74 | Neutral | 32 | PASS |
| 4 | Micro Mikki | 8 | 8.00 | OK | 76 | Neutral | 53 | WATCH |
| 6 | Solitario | 12 | 6.00 | GOOD | 78 | Hot | 60 | WATCH |
| 7 | Barello | 7 | 20.00 | OK | 72 | Cold | 38 | PASS |
| 9 | Ischyros | 13 | 151.00 | POOR | 66 | Cold | 22 | PASS |
| 10 | Nova Centauri | 14 | 71.00 | OK | 74 | Cold | 28 | PASS |
| 11 | Rose Aye | 16 | 2.90 | OK | 80 | Hot | 58 | WATCH |
| 14 | Andale Andale | 2 | 11.00 | GOOD | 72 | Neutral | 55 | WATCH |
| 15 | Shezain | 11 | 11.00 | OK | 68 | Neutral | 49 | PASS |
| 16 | Winning Emotions | 3 | 14.00 | OK | 72 | Neutral | 44 | WATCH |
| 18 | The Main Event | 19 | 201.00 | POOR | 64 | Cold | 18 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: New Pharoah posted the best recent figure winning by 2.22L at 1150m; Rose Aye solid metro highway form (4th/16 Randwick). Pace: MODERATE expected with inside draws (New Pharoah bar 1, Andale Andale bar 2) likely forward; suits on-pace runners with sustained speed. Class: Most runners rising from country CL1-BM66 to BM78 metro; Rose Aye has the most metro experience but hasn’t won at this level; genuine BM78 form thin across the field. Bias: Neutral (LOW confidence) - no significant style or barrier bias detected; rain forecast could shift track to Soft.
SELECTION RATIONALE
New Pharoah is the each-way play at $8.50. His last-start win at Beaumont (1150m Soft, 2.22L margin) was visually impressive and his form line reads 1-1-2-4-1 - genuinely progressive. Jason Collett maintains the ride and barrier 1 is the best draw in the field, allowing him to save ground throughout. The class rise from CTRY BM66 to BM78 metro is the main query, but his Scone form (2nd in CL2 over 1300m) shows he handles this trip. The $2.60 place odds provide strong each-way insurance given his 58% career place strike rate.
Rose Aye at $2.90 is a clear OPPOSE - wide barrier (16), unproven at Rosehill over 1300m, and while Tommy Berry helps, the price doesn’t compensate for the risks. Solitario with McDonald is the danger but stepping from 900m sprints to 1300m is a significant fitness query.
KEY RISKS
- New Pharoah’s class rise from country to metro BM78 may prove too sharp
- Rain could shift track to Soft/Heavy, potentially benefiting Solitario (6:2-5 on Soft) over New Pharoah
kelly: 0.5% | ev: +$0.20/u | score: 52.3/100