Rosehill R3 | 1100m BM78
Sat 21 Feb | 1:40pm | 10r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #6 EAGLE EXPRESS @ $4.20 - 0.38u WIN VALUE: #3 SWEETHEARTED @ $13.00 - 0.20u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Eagle Express | 4.20 | 74.3 | 25.0% | +4.8% | STRONG_VALUE | 0.38% |
| 9 | Stormland | 4.50 | 68.3 | 20.7% | -6.7% | STRONG_VALUE | - |
| 3 | Sweethearted | 13.00 | 53.4 | 8.4% | +9.8% | VALUE | 0.20% |
| 1 | Bev’s Nine | 4.00 | 53.3 | 16.9% | -32.5% | VALUE | - |
| 7 | Polyglot | 10.00 | 40.5 | 7.3% | -26.5% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Signor Tortoni | 12.00 | 30.0 | 5.5% | -33.7% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bev’s Nine | 12 | 4.00 | 110.1 | POOR | 81 | 0% | Neutral | 53.3 | VALUE |
| 2 | Signor Tortoni | 2 | 12.00 | 105.2 | OK | 75>81 | 0% | Neutral | 30.0 | WATCH |
| 3 | Sweethearted | 10 | 13.00 | 104.3 | GOOD | 87>81 | 0% | Neutral | 53.4 | VALUE |
| 4 | Arriving Home | 13 | 11.00 | 104.0 | OK | 75>81 | 0% | Neutral | 17.5 | PASS |
| 5 | Hezdarnhottoo | 14 | 12.00 | 104.0 | OK | 81 | 0% | Cold | 6.3 | PASS |
| 6 | Eagle Express | 3 | 4.20 | 102.7 | GOOD | 76>81 | 0% | Hot | 74.3 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 7 | Polyglot | 9 | 10.00 | 103.7 | OK | 81 | 0% | Neutral | 40.5 | WATCH |
| 8 | Runlikenencryption | 7 | 26.00 | 106.1 | POOR | 76>81 | 0% | Cold | 22.8 | PASS |
| 9 | Stormland | 8 | 4.50 | 105.8 | OK | 75>81 | 0% | Hot | 68.3 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 10 | Shropshire Lad | 4 | 23.00 | 103.8 | POOR | Hwy>81 | 0% | Cold | 28.3 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Bev’s Nine top figure (110.1 avg, 112.4 peak) is 4pts clear of the field but penalised by wide barrier and contested pace scenario where leaders are disadvantaged. Pace: CONTESTED - four on-pace runners (Bev’s Nine, Stormland, Runlikenencryption, Shropshire Lad) ensure genuine tempo, favouring midfield/closing runners like Eagle Express and Sweethearted. Class: Sweethearted drops from BM84 (strongest class), Stormland and Signor Tortoni rise from BM72. Several first-up/long-break runners add uncertainty. Bias: Neutral (LOW confidence) - no significant style or barrier bias detected.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Eagle Express scored highest on the composite model (74.3) through the combination of elite connections (J McDonald / C Waller), ideal inside barrier (3), pace-suit in a contested tempo (LP rating 61.7), and strong recent form winning at Rosehill last start. While her speed figure (102.7) is the lowest among contenders, the non-speed factors - connections, barrier, pace advantage, and won last at this track - create enough edge at $4.20 to justify a position. Expert support is strongest at 75% (3/4 sources).
Sweethearted offers each-way value at $13.00 dropping from BM84 class in Victoria. The highest consistency rating in the field (98.8%) and closing pace profile suit the contested tempo. No red flags apply.
KEY RISKS
- Eagle Express has no wins at 1100m (0/3) - all wins at 1200m+ or shorter. Distance query is real.
- Bev’s Nine is unbeaten (4/4) with the best speed figure by 4pts - if the pace isn’t genuinely fast, the model’s contested-pace discount may be wrong.
kelly: 0.38% | ev: +$0.05/u | score: 74.3/100