Rosehill R5 | 1400m BM100
Sat 21 Feb | 2:50pm | 9r (2 scr) | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #6 THUNDERLIPS @ $6.00 - 1.0u EW VALUE: #10 KIND WORDS @ $10.00 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lord Penman | $2.30 | 81.0 | 30% | -6.5% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Magnatear | $3.30 | 73.7 | 18% | -7.5% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Thunderlips | $6.00 | 70.4 | 15% | +1.0% | VALUE | 1.0u |
| 4 | War Eternal | $23.00 | 67.0 | 6% | +2.3% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Kind Words | $10.00 | 65.2 | 10% | +1.6% | VALUE | 0.5u |
| 1 | Palmetto | $18.00 | 52.0 | 5% | +0.3% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Class | Pace | Bias | Conn | Form | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmetto | 3 | $18 | 78 | OK | 0% | Neutral | 65383 | 52.0 | PASS |
| 2 | Lord Penman | 5 | $2.30 | 95 | GOOD | 0% | Hot | 27720 | 81.0 | WATCH |
| 3 | Magnatear | 1 | $3.30 | 82 | GOOD | 0% | Neutral | 561x4 | 73.7 | WATCH |
| 4 | War Eternal | 10 | $23 | 82 | OK | 0% | Neutral | 169x9 | 67.0 | WATCH |
| 5 | Flying Bandit | 11 | $26 | 78 | POOR | 0% | Cold | 7x64x | 48.0 | PASS |
| 6 | Thunderlips | 8 | $6.00 | 85 | GOOD | 0% | Neutral | 7x426 | 70.4 | VALUE |
| 7 | Age Of Sail | 7 | $61 | 72 | POOR | 0% | Neutral | 14662 | 38.0 | PASS |
| 10 | Kind Words | 9 | $10 | 75 | GOOD | 0% | Neutral | x3241 | 65.2 | VALUE |
| 11 | Gravina | 4 | $31 | 72 | OK | 0% | Cold | 4527x | 45.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Lord Penman has the best figures from Group-level form (Epsom/Silver Eagle); Magnatear next best from MM Cup effort. Pace: MODERATE - no confirmed leader; Lord Penman, Magnatear, Kind Words likely to sit handy; race should be run evenly. Class: Lord Penman (Epsom/Golden Eagle) and Thunderlips (Open Quality) the clear class standouts; Kind Words rising from BM78. Bias: Neutral bias expected on Good 4; rain forecast could shift to soft which dramatically changes the complexion.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Thunderlips is the value play in a race dominated by Lord Penman’s price. His soft track record (12:5-7, 42% wins) is elite compared to his good track form (12:1-3, 8%), and with rain forecast on a Good 4 surface, any deterioration transforms his chances. Second-up from a solid 2nd in the Carrington Stakes (1400m, 0.41L), he has proven BM100+ form and the Rosehill 1400m experience (1 win, 3 starts at track). At $6, the each-way market provides a safety net given his consistency.
Kind Words is a progressive mare with back-to-back wins (BM78 Rosehill 2000m, Gosford 1600m) and a Rosehill 1400m win earlier in her prep. She’s on an upward trajectory and the $10 odds provide genuine each-way value, though the class rise to BM100 and 55-day gap are moderate concerns.
Lord Penman is the most talented horse but is fully priced at $2.30 - our model has him at 30% (fair odds $3.33), making him unbackable at current price despite the Waller/McDonald combination.
KEY RISKS
- Track stays Good 4 (doesn’t deteriorate) - removes Thunderlips’ key edge
- Lord Penman dominant first-up - Waller/McDonald have a 25%+ first-up strike rate at this level
- Kind Words class rise from BM78 to BM100 may be too steep
thunderlips: kelly 1.0u EW | ev: +$0.06/u | score: 70.4/100 kind_words: kelly 0.5u EW | ev: +$0.16/u | score: 65.2/100