Rosehill R6 | 1100m 2YO Top Tote
Sat 21 Feb | 3:25pm | 9r | Good 4 (Rain)
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #9 SHIKI @ $4.60 - 0.72u WIN VALUE: #1 INCOGNITO @ $8.50 - 0.63u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shiki | 4.60 | 82.4 | 24.0% | +5.7% | STRONG_VALUE | 0.72% |
| 2 | Hidrix | 3.60 | 82.0 | 23.5% | 0.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Confederation | 4.00 | 81.3 | 22.0% | +0.9% | VALUE | - |
| 1 | Incognito | 8.50 | 76.7 | 14.0% | +4.1% | VALUE | 0.63% |
| 3 | Stretan Ruler | 6.00 | 72.5 | 8.0% | -6.1% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Savage Look | 41.00 | 71.2 | 1.5% | -0.6% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shiki | 7 | 4.60 | 90 | OK | 95 | 0% | Hot | 82.4 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 2 | Hidrix | 6 | 3.60 | 88 | GOOD | 88 | 0% | Neutral | 82.0 | WATCH |
| 4 | Confederation | 3 | 4.00 | 85 | GOOD | 85 | 0% | Hot | 81.3 | VALUE |
| 1 | Incognito | 5 | 8.50 | 82 | GOOD | 82 | 0% | Hot | 76.7 | VALUE |
| 3 | Stretan Ruler | 4 | 6.00 | 78 | OK | 72 | 0% | Neutral | 72.5 | PASS |
| 5 | Savage Look | 8 | 41.00 | 76 | OK | 74 | 0% | Cold | 71.2 | PASS |
| 6 | Eviction Notice | 9 | 26.00 | 80 | POOR | 82 | 0% | Neutral | 70.4 | PASS |
| 8 | Dr Hook | 2 | 12.00 | 70 | OK | 65 | 0% | Neutral | 67.2 | PASS |
| 10 | Wave Blaster | 1 | 126.00 | 62 | POOR | 60 | 0% | Cold | 60.9 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Shiki has the best raw figures (90) from her Gimcrack and Canterbury wins; Hidrix (88) the Canonbury benchmark. Clear top-two speed horses. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected with Incognito and Dr Hook likely forward, suits the mid-field runners Hidrix and Confederation; Shiki can settle and finish over them. Class: Shiki is the class act - Gimcrack Stakes winner stepping back from the Magic Millions Classic. Hidrix proved at stakes level winning the Canonbury. Confederation’s debut 2nd in Canonbury was strong. Bias: Good 4 with rain - track may deteriorate. No significant bias detected (LOW confidence). If track softens, Shiki has soft track form (1 from 2).
SELECTION RATIONALE
Shiki is the highest-rated runner on our model despite being third in market. She’s the class standout as a Gimcrack winner who dominated at Canterbury by 2.47L last start over 900m. The step back from 1200m (MM Classic where she was beaten as a filly vs colts) to 1100m suits, and she’s proven at this distance winning the Gold Coast 1100m by 2.04L. Tim Clark is a strong booking and the Waterhouse/Bott yard are elite with 2YOs. At $4.60 she offers genuine edge over the market assessment.
Incognito as an each-way play at $8.50 offers value. He won the Breeders Plate earlier in his prep and while disappointing 5th in the Canonbury, that was on a moderate pace where he may not have gotten the right run. Tommy Berry retains the ride which is a positive sign, and the second-up pattern could yield improvement. Place probability of ~38% against $2.25 place odds gives strong place EV.
KEY RISKS
- Shiki barrier 7 - wide draw in a 9-horse field at 1100m could mean she’s caught wide without cover if pace is slow
- Rain factor - track currently Good 4 but rain forecast could see it downgraded to Soft; favors Shiki’s form but increases general uncertainty in a 2YO race
- Hidrix improvement - the Canonbury winner may have more upside from one run and Waller juveniles often improve sharply second-up
shiki: kelly 0.72% | ev: +$0.10/u | score: 82.4/100 incognito: kelly 0.63% | ev: +$0.19/u (ew) | score: 76.7/100