Rosehill R8 | 1400m Group 2 Hobartville Stakes
Sat 21 Feb | 4:35pm | 7r | Good 4
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #4 SHANGRI LA BOY @ $11.00 - 1.35u EW VALUE: #2 ATTICA @ $14.00 - 1.05u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ninja | 2.30 | 71.2 | 28% | -36% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Autumn Boy | 3.40 | 63.7 | 22% | -25% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Napoleonic | 4.20 | 70.7 | 15% | -37% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Shangri La Boy | 11.00 | 70.0 | 14% | +54% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.35% |
| 2 | Attica | 14.00 | 63.1 | 11% | +55% | VALUE | 1.05% |
| 8 | Green Spaces | 46.00 | 59.2 | 6% | +173% | PASS | - |
| 6 | Rivellino | 46.00 | 61.3 | 4% | +82% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ninja | 3 | 2.30 | 105.9 | GOOD | 108 | 0% | Hot | 71.2 | WATCH |
| 5 | Napoleonic | 6 | 4.20 | 104.9 | GOOD | 103 | 0% | Neutral | 70.7 | WATCH |
| 4 | Shangri La Boy | 7 | 11.00 | 99.8 | OK | 108 | 0% | Hot | 70.0 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 1 | Autumn Boy | 8 | 3.40 | 98.1 | OK | 118 | 0% | Hot | 63.7 | WATCH |
| 2 | Attica | 10 | 14.00 | 102.7 | POOR | 118 | 0% | Neutral | 63.1 | VALUE |
| 6 | Rivellino | 1 | 46.00 | 103.2 | GOOD | 103 | 0% | Neutral | 61.3 | PASS |
| 8 | Green Spaces | 5 | 46.00 | 100.8 | OK | 98 | 0% | Cold | 59.2 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Ninja posts the best figures (105.9 avg) on the back of a demolition Vo Rogue (G3) win by 4.79L. Napoleonic next (104.9) from Listed form. Autumn Boy’s figures (98.1) undersell his Group 1 ability - Caulfield Guineas time was modest.
Pace: MODERATE shape with only 7 runners. Napoleonic the likely leader from barrier 6. Ninja and Autumn Boy to stalk. Suits on-pace and stalking types. No genuinely strong closer in the field.
Class: This is a clash between five horses with Group race credentials. Autumn Boy (Caulfield Guineas G1 winner) and Attica (Champion Stakes G1 winner) are dropping in class. Shangri La Boy (Gloaming G3, Champion Stakes G1 2nd) and Ninja (Vo Rogue G3) are rising slightly. Napoleonic (Red Anchor Listed) faces his biggest test.
Bias: No significant track bias detected (LOW confidence). Rail position not specified. Neutral across styles and barriers.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#4 Shangri La Boy ($11.00 EW) is the value play. He’s a perfect 2/2 at Rosehill including a dominant 2.18L maiden win at this distance. His Gloaming (G3) victory over 1800m by 2.11L showed class, and he chased Attica home in the Champion Stakes (G1) for second. Tim Clark/Waterhouse & Bott are a hot combination. He’s trialled twice (won Canterbury, middling at Randwick) and the 119 days off is the only concern - but he’s a progressive type resuming at his pet track. At $11.00, the market is undervaluing his upside.
#2 Attica ($14.00 EW) is the surprise value. A Champion Stakes (G1 2000m) winner with a 75% win rate (3/4 starts), he’s clearly talented but faces two key queries: (1) dropping back from 2000m to 1400m with a stamina-heavy profile, and (2) Adam Hyeronimus replacing a better jockey. Wide barrier (10) in a 7-horse field is less of a concern. His Dulcify (Listed 1600m) win by 1.91L showed sharp acceleration. At double-figure odds, the risk/reward favours a saver.
Why not the favorites? Ninja ($2.30) is clearly the best horse on speed figures but his price demands ~43% win probability. We rate him at 28% - talented but only 1 start on Good track and rising from G3 to G2. Autumn Boy ($3.40) is a G1 winner but his raw speed figures are the weakest among the contenders and barrier 8 in a 7-horse field is a negative. Napoleonic ($4.20) has never raced beyond 1200m and faces a significant class rise.
KEY RISKS
- Shangri La Boy: 119 days off - fitness query despite trials; wide barrier (7/10) may mean wide run
- Attica: Distance drop from 2000m to 1400m untested; wide barrier (10/10); weaker jockey booking
- General: Only 1 source of expert tips available in briefing; track bias data LOW confidence
#4 kelly: 1.35% | ev: +$0.54/u | score: 70.0/100 #2 kelly: 1.05% | ev: +$0.55/u | score: 63.1/100