Rosehill R9 | 1300m Millie Fox Stakes (G2)
Sat 21 Feb | 5:15pm | 9r (2 scr) | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #8 CINSAULT @ $7.00 - 0.8u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cinsault | 7.00 | 52.4 | 17% | +19% | VALUE | 0.79% |
| 1 | Lazzura | 2.00 | 48.2 | 35% | -30% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Cilacap | 9.50 | 42.5 | 11% | +5% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Modella | 12.00 | 40.8 | 9% | +8% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Dark Glitter | 11.00 | 38.1 | 8% | -12% | PASS | - |
| 9 | Heat Missile | 12.00 | 35.6 | 5% | -40% | PASS | - |
| 4 | Pinito | 13.00 | 34.2 | 6% | -22% | PASS | - |
| 11 | Mareth | 13.00 | 33.8 | 5% | -35% | PASS | - |
| 10 | Super Norwest | 31.00 | 30.1 | 4% | +24% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazzura | 8 | 2.00 | 100.8 | OK | 115 | 0% | Hot | 48.2 | WATCH |
| 3 | Cilacap | 4 | 9.50 | 101.1 | GOOD | 100 | 0% | Neut | 42.5 | WATCH |
| 4 | Pinito | 1 | 13.00 | 106.8* | OK | 78 | 0% | Neut | 34.2 | PASS |
| 5 | Dark Glitter | 7 | 11.00 | 100.9 | GOOD | 103 | 0% | Cold | 38.1 | PASS |
| 7 | Modella | 3 | 12.00 | 101.0 | OK | 101 | 0% | Neut | 40.8 | WATCH |
| 8 | Cinsault | 2 | 7.00 | 102.5 | GOOD | 73 | 0% | Hot | 52.4 | VALUE |
| 9 | Heat Missile | 9 | 12.00 | 105.3* | POOR | 73 | 0% | Hot | 35.6 | PASS |
| 10 | Super Norwest | 11 | 31.00 | 101.9 | POOR | 73 | 0% | Neut | 30.1 | WATCH |
| 11 | Mareth | 6 | 13.00 | 104.3* | GOOD | 60 | 0% | Neut | 33.8 | PASS |
*Figures inflated - Pinito (heavy tracks 259d ago), Heat Missile (BM72 only), Mareth (maiden level)
ANALYSIS
Speed: Figures tightly clustered (100.8-102.5 adj). Cinsault’s 102.5 avg on recent Good tracks most reliable; Lazzura’s 100.8 depressed by 58kg in G1-3 fields. Pace: FAST shape with Heat Missile and Super Norwest contesting from wide draws (9, 11). Pace burn favors midfield/stalkers - Cinsault (bar 2) and Cilacap (bar 4) best placed. Class: Lazzura proven G2-3 class (Lets Elope, Show County). Cinsault rising from BM78 but hat-trick form compelling. Heat Missile, Super Norwest massive class rise from BM72. Bias: Neutral bias, low confidence. No significant track pattern detected.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Cinsault is the value play at $7.00. She’s on a hat-trick with a 92% career place rate (12 from 13 starts), drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to get a soft run behind the speed, and her last-start 1300m Randwick win is directly relevant. The class rise from BM78 to G2 is significant, but Freedman has her peaking at the right time and the pace scenario (fast early from wide-drawn leaders) plays into her on-pace/stalking style. The $2.00 EW place odds offer excellent security given her extraordinary place consistency.
Lazzura is the class runner and likely winner (35% probability) but is a significant underlay at $2.00 (implied 50%). She needs to overcome barrier 8 in a 9-horse field, 58kg topweight, and a 112-day absence with only moderate trial form. She’s the most likely winner but the worst bet.
KEY RISKS
- Cinsault has never raced at Rosehill - unknown track suitability
- Class rise from BM78 to G2 is 2-3 levels - the gap may be too wide
- If Lazzura jumps well from 8, she could dominate on raw class
kelly: 0.79% | ev: +$0.19/u | score: 52.4/100