Cranbourne R1 | 1200m Maiden
Fri 27 Feb | 6:15pm | 9r (2 scr) | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
NO BET - No value at current prices. Favourite too short, rest lack form substance.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Balance | $1.60 | 47.3 | 50% | -20.0% | VALUE | 0 |
| 8 | Carriedo | $5.50 | - | 14% | -23.0% | PASS | 0 |
| 4 | Juvenal | $6.50 | - | 13% | -15.5% | PASS | 0 |
| 6 | Salarae | $8.50 | - | 8% | -32.0% | PASS | 0 |
| 5 | See See Magic | $11 | - | 6% | -34.0% | PASS | 0 |
| 9 | Love Me Tomorrow | $23 | - | 4% | -36.6% | PASS | 0 |
| 1 | On My Own | $101 | - | 1% | - | PASS | 0 |
| 3 | Silver Lightning | $91 | - | 1% | - | PASS | 0 |
| 10 | Sheeze Ominous | $126 | - | 1% | - | PASS | 0 |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Wet | Conn | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Balance | 7 | 1.60 | 6 (Caulfield Lsted) | 68 | Untested | B Melham/C McDonald | VALUE |
| 8 | Carriedo | 2 | 5.50 | 4-x-3 | 60 | 0/1 Soft | M Dee/G Begg | PASS |
| 4 | Juvenal | 3 | 6.50 | 2 (Port Mac) | 60 | Untested | J Childs/Price-Kent | PASS |
| 6 | Salarae | 5 | 8.50 | 4 (Pakenham) | 60 | Untested | E Brown/C Brown | PASS |
| 5 | See See Magic | 11 | 11.00 | Debut | 60 | Untested | C Newitt/E Cummings | PASS |
| 9 | Love Me Tomorrow | 9 | 23.00 | 3 (Kilmore) | 60 | Untested | L King/B Brisbourne | PASS |
| 1 | On My Own | 6 | 101 | 8-x-4-4-7 | 60 | 0/1 Soft | K Jennings/G Singh | PASS |
| 3 | Silver Lightning | 4 | 91.00 | 8 (Cranbourne) | 60 | 0/1 Soft | B Kinninmont/P Foster | PASS |
| 10 | Sheeze Ominous | 1 | 126 | 4-x-5 | 60 | Untested | J Radley/Croston-Gilmour | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: No meaningful speed figures available - nearly all runners are unraced or lightly raced maidens with no sectional data. Balance’s Caulfield Listed run (6th/12, 1.5L margin, 62.59s/1100m) is the standout benchmark.
Pace: MODERATE. Limited early speed engaged. Balance likely to settle mid-field from barrier 7. No genuine speed horses identified - On My Own and Salarae showed some early presence in their limited starts but neither is prominent here.
Class: Balance vastly superior. 6th in the Kev Hayes Stakes (Listed, Caulfield) is 2+ class levels above a provincial maiden. Juvenal placed at Port Macquarie and in barrier trials at Rosehill/Warwick Farm (Mick Price/Michael Kent Jnr yard). Carriedo 3rd at Kyneton maiden - honest form. The rest are very moderate.
Bias: Soft 5 with rain - no track bias data available (LOW confidence). Balance and Juvenal both untested on soft ground. Carriedo has one soft start (4th at Geelong). Wet track is a genuine query for the top two in the market.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Balance is the class runner by a wide margin - a Listed-class filly in a weak provincial maiden. Even 6th in the Kev Hayes at Caulfield represents superior ability. However, at $1.60 she needs to win ~63% of the time to be value, and my assessment is ~50% given: (1) untested on soft ground, (2) stepping to 1200m for the first time, (3) first time at Cranbourne, (4) only one career start. The gap between talent and price creates a NO BET.
Juvenal (#4, $6.50) is the most interesting alternative - consistent placer in trials from the Price/Kent yard with Jordan Childs booked. But only 1 start for 2nd and stepping to 1200m on an unknown wet track. Place specialist score of 3.2 is notable but EW value is still -8.8% at current price.
KEY RISKS
- Soft 5 with rain could worsen to Heavy - Balance and Juvenal both untested on wet ground
- Thin maiden with very limited form data makes probability estimation unreliable
PLACE SPECIALIST NOTE
Juvenal (#4): Place specialist score 3.2 (STRONG). 100% placing rate (1/1 starts). Monitor if odds drift to $8+ where EW may approach breakeven.
NO BET | best edge: -15.5% (Juvenal) | score: 47.3/100 (Balance)
Data source: sportsbetform.com.au