Cranbourne R4 | 1200m Listed
Fri 27 Feb | 7:45pm | 7r (8-1 scr) | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #1 TOWER BRIDGE @ $5.50 - 1.2u WIN
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tower Bridge | $5.50 | 64.7 | 22% | +21.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.17% |
| 2 | Fly By Light | $2.60 | 42.5 | 30% | -22.0% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Arlington Row | $6.00 | 34.0 | 16% | -4.0% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Lyrics ‘N’ Song | $4.20 | - | 18% | -24.4% | PASS | - |
| 4 | Sea Trader | $9.00 | - | 10% | -10.0% | PASS | - |
| 6 | Amping Lass | $14.00 | - | 8% | +12.0% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Hotspur Reale | $18.00 | - | 6% | +8.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tower Bridge | 3 | $5.50 | 78 | GOOD | 72 | 0% | Hot | 64.7 | SV |
| 2 | Fly By Light | 2 | $2.60 | 72 | OK | 60 | 0% | Neut | 42.5 | WATCH |
| 7 | Arlington Row | 1 | $6.00 | 73 | OK | 60 | 0% | Neut | 34.0 | WATCH |
| 3 | Lyrics ‘N’ Song | 4 | $4.20 | 74 | OK | 68 | 0% | Cold | - | PASS |
| 4 | Sea Trader | 7 | $9.00 | 68 | POOR | 60 | 0% | Neut | - | PASS |
| 6 | Amping Lass | 5 | $14.00 | 70 | POOR | 80 | 0% | Hot | - | PASS |
| 5 | Hotspur Reale | 8 | $18.00 | 72 | POOR | 65 | 0% | Cold | - | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Tower Bridge best figure (78) from BM62 Sale win, 4-6pts clear of maiden-grade rivals. Only runner with a rating-class win. Pace: MODERATE tempo likely with Fly By Light and Tower Bridge both on-pace types. Small field, no confirmed leaders – genuine speed unlikely to run along. Class: Massive class rise for entire field – all are maidens/BM62 stepping into Listed company. Tower Bridge has the edge having won a BM62 and run 2nd in 0-66 at Sandown. Fly By Light and Arlington Row both maiden winners only. Bias: Soft 5 with rain – no significant barrier or style bias detected (LOW confidence). Tower Bridge 1-from-2 on soft; Fly By Light untested on soft (0 starts).
SELECTION RATIONALE
Tower Bridge is the class horse in this field at a price that significantly overestimates the favourite Fly By Light. Tower Bridge has the highest speed figure (78) from a BM62 win at Sale, is proven on soft ground (1/1 on soft tracks), and is trained by Ciaron Maher with Damian Lane aboard – a potent combination. The market has Fly By Light as a $2.60 favourite off a single maiden win on Good ground, creating a clear overlay on Tower Bridge at $5.50. The +21% edge and 69% place probability provide a strong value play.
KEY RISKS
- No Cranbourne course form – first start at the track (0 from 0)
- Class rise from BM62 to Listed is significant, though the whole field faces similar jump
- Last win was at 1006m (Sale) – needs to confirm at 1200m on a wet track
PLACE PROBABILITIES
| # | Horse | Place% | Place Spec |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Fly By Light | 85.0% | Normal (1.19) |
| 1 | Tower Bridge | 69.1% | Normal (1.22) |
| 3 | Lyrics ‘N’ Song | 60.4% | Strong Specialist (1.98) |
| 7 | Arlington Row | 54.8% | Strong Specialist (2.23) |
| 4 | Sea Trader | 33.0% | Normal |
| 6 | Amping Lass | 24.4% | Normal |
| 5 | Hotspur Reale | 21.2% | Normal |
SCRATCHINGS
- #8 Layla (scratched)
kelly: 1.17% | ev: +$0.21/u | score: 64.7/100