Cranbourne R6 | 955m BM74
Fri 27 Feb | 8:45pm | 9r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #7 BLACKBERRY BOMB @ $10.00 - 1.1u EW VALUE: #4 CANNYWORTH @ $6.00 - 0.7u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gentle Steel | $2.70 | 73.1 | 32% | -13.6% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Mrs Iglesia | $7.00 | 70.0 | 11% | -23.0% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Blackberry Bomb | $10.00 | 68.6 | 14% | +40.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.1u |
| 4 | Cannyworth | $6.00 | 68.4 | 19% | +14.0% | VALUE | 0.7u |
| 1 | Shirshov | $11.00 | 63.9 | 9% | -1.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Hello Romeo | $10.00 | 63.0 | 12% | +20.0% | VALUE | 0.6u |
| 5 | Egerton | $6.00 | 61.4 | 9% | -46.0% | PASS | - |
| 2 | Core Concept | $23.00 | 60.7 | 4% | -8.0% | PASS | - |
| 3 | El Pibe De Oro | $23.00 | 60.0 | 4% | -8.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Wet | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gentle Steel | 3 | $2.70 | 85 | GOOD | 82 | 2/3 | Neutral | 73.1 | WATCH |
| 10 | Mrs Iglesia | 2 | $7.00 | 78 | GOOD | 78 | 1/3 | Hot | 70.0 | WATCH |
| 7 | Blackberry Bomb | 5 | $10.00 | 84 | OK | 82 | 1/4 | Neutral | 68.6 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 4 | Cannyworth | 7 | $6.00 | 80 | GOOD | 76 | 2/3 | Hot | 68.4 | VALUE |
| 1 | Shirshov | 9 | $11.00 | 82 | OK | 82 | 3/11 | Neutral | 63.9 | WATCH |
| 6 | Hello Romeo | 6 | $10.00 | 75 | OK | 76 | 2/7 | Neutral | 63.0 | VALUE |
| 5 | Egerton | 10 | $6.00 | 76 | POOR | 76 | 0/2 | Neutral | 61.4 | PASS |
| 2 | Core Concept | 1 | $23.00 | 72 | POOR | 70 | 2/5 | Neutral | 60.7 | PASS |
| 3 | El Pibe De Oro | 4 | $23.00 | 68 | POOR | 70 | 0/1 | Neutral | 60.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Gentle Steel (85) and Blackberry Bomb (84) hold the top figures, but BB offers 4x the odds. Shirshov’s BM84 second (82) adds depth but wide draw hurts. Pace: MODERATE - several on-pace runners (#8, #4, #10) should ensure genuine tempo. Mid-runners and stalkers get an honest chase. No clear leader. Class: Gentle Steel rises from a Caulfield Heath BM70 win; Blackberry Bomb last ran 3rd in BM78 at this track - proven at this level. Cannyworth steps up from BM64 but has quality. Bias: Soft 5 with rain - no reliable bias data (LOW confidence). Wet track favours #8 (67% soft win rate), #4 (50% soft/heavy), and #6 (29% soft). Egerton is the big query with no wet form.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Blackberry Bomb is the clear value play at $10. Course specialist with 2 wins from 4 starts at Cranbourne, including a BM66 win over this trip in 55.68s. Last start 3rd in BM78 here (0.4L off winner in 55.23s) proves competitiveness at this level. The $10 price implies just 10% chance but our model rates 14% - a +40% edge. EW value is strong at +35% EV with 40% place probability.
Cannyworth offers secondary value at $6. The 3yo by Damian Lane won on Soft at Bendigo and on Heavy at Bendigo - relishes wet ground. Two wins from three sprint starts show natural speed. Stepping up to BM74 from BM64 is the query, but Lane’s booking signals confidence. EW EV +13.2%.
KEY RISKS
- Gentle Steel may simply be too good - 50% win rate, won last start, soft track proven. The price is short but the horse is genuine.
- Soft 5 with rain could deteriorate to Heavy - would further advantage Cannyworth/Gentle Steel and disadvantage our primary pick Blackberry Bomb (1/4 on soft).
- Blackberry Bomb wide barrier (5 of 9) in a small field sprint - needs to find cover early or may burn petrol.
EW ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Win EV | Place Prob | Place EV | EW EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Blackberry Bomb | +40.0% | 40.0% | +30.0% | +35.0% | STRONG EW |
| 6 | Hello Romeo | +20.0% | 35.0% | +13.7% | +16.9% | STRONG EW |
| 4 | Cannyworth | +14.0% | 50.0% | +12.5% | +13.2% | STRONG EW |
Place Specialists: #5 Egerton (score 2.16, 73% career placing) and #1 Shirshov (score 2.69, 52% career placing) - but neither offers win value at current odds.
#7 BB: kelly 1.1% | ev: +$0.35/u | score: 68.6/100 | #4 CW: kelly 0.7% | ev: +$0.13/u | score: 68.4/100