Cranbourne R7 | 1200m Group 3 - Top Tote
Fri 27 Feb | 9:15pm | 8r | Soft 5 | Rain | 7C
ACTION
VALUE: #2 CORNICHE @ $15.00 - 0.36u EW VALUE: #8 MISS ICELANDIC @ $11.00 - 0.25u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celsius Star | 5.50 | 58.0 | 18% | -1% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Give Me Space | 3.70 | 55.0 | 25% | -8% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Pop Award | 5.00 | 45.0 | 15% | -25% | PASS | - |
| 2 | Corniche | 15.00 | 52.0 | 8% | +20% | VALUE | 0.36 |
| 8 | Miss Icelandic | 11.00 | 48.5 | 10% | +10% | VALUE | 0.25 |
| 6 | Soft Love | 5.50 | 42.0 | 13% | -29% | PASS | - |
| 1 | A Little Deep | 5.50 | 38.0 | 12% | -34% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Suparazi | 19.00 | 30.0 | 6% | +14% | WATCH | - |
FIELD TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A Little Deep | 4 | 5.50 | 85 | OK | 80 | 0% | Hot | 38.0 | PASS |
| 2 | Corniche | 2 | 15.00 | 90 | OK | 85 | 0% | Neut | 52.0 | VALUE |
| 3 | Pop Award | 6 | 5.00 | 84 | OK | 82 | 0% | Neut | 45.0 | PASS |
| 4 | Give Me Space | 5 | 3.70 | 88 | GOOD | 90 | 0% | Hot | 55.0 | WATCH |
| 5 | Suparazi | 3 | 19.00 | 91 | POOR | 78 | 0% | Neut | 30.0 | WATCH |
| 6 | Soft Love | 8 | 5.50 | 85 | OK | 82 | 0% | Neut | 42.0 | PASS |
| 7 | Celsius Star | 1 | 5.50 | 91 | GOOD | 80 | 0% | Neut | 58.0 | WATCH |
| 8 | Miss Icelandic | 7 | 11.00 | 87 | OK | 76 | 0% | Neut | 48.5 | VALUE |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Celsius Star (91) and Suparazi (91) share the top raw figure but Suparazi 0/13 at 1200m is a massive concern; Corniche (90) not far behind with proven wet-track ability. Pace: MODERATE - small field with no confirmed leaders. Celsius Star (bar 1) and Give Me Space likely to sit handy. Should suit on-pace types. Class: Give Me Space has the highest class rating (90) from BM70/Open 3YO wins at Eagle Farm/Doomben, but hasn’t raced in 314 days and faces a Soft 5 for only the second time (0/1 soft). Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Rain and Soft 5 will favour wet-trackers and inside barriers.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Corniche (EW $15.00) represents the best value play. Strong wet-track form (1/3 soft, 1/2 heavy including a dominant 3L win at Rosehill on Heavy), 167 days off but won a jump-out first-up on 16/02. Bobbie Lewis (G3) form at Flemington reads well for this class level. Inside barrier (2) ideal on a rain-affected track. Place specialist score of 2.97 (STRONG) with 57% career place rate. EW EV of +16.0% is the best play in the race.
Miss Icelandic (EW $11.00) offers secondary EW value. Course specialist with 2/2 wins at Cranbourne (both 1200m), strong place specialist (2.08 score, 50% career place rate), and proven on soft (2/8 wins, 5/8 places). Ran 5th at Hobart last start on Soft - some query there, but Cranbourne track knowledge is a genuine edge.
KEY RISKS
- Corniche: 167 days between races, last competitive start was Sep ‘25 Bobbie Lewis (10th); relying on wet-track form from winter ‘25
- Give Me Space: Clear class standout but 314 days off and untested on soft - if handling conditions, could blow away this field at unders
- Track deterioration: Continued rain could push to Heavy, benefiting Corniche further but potentially disadvantaging other selections
corniche kelly: 0.36% | ev: +$0.16/u | score: 52.0/100 miss_icelandic kelly: 0.25% | ev: +$0.06/u | score: 48.5/100 source: sportsbetform.com.au