Eagle Farm R10 | 1400m BM85
Sat 28 Feb | 12:15pm | 15r (3 scr) | Soft 7 | Rain 10C
ACTION
EW VALUE: #3 SLIPPIN’ JIMMY @ $15.00 - 1.4u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Slippin’ Jimmy | 6 | 15.00 | 12% | +80% | 32% | EW VALUE | 1.4% |
| 5 | John Rambo | 7 | 4.20 | 15% | -37% | 37% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Ser Joh | 3 | 7.50 | 9% | -33% | 24% | PASS | - |
| 8 | Castillian | 8 | 8.00 | 9% | -28% | 23% | PASS | - |
| 16 | Sultry Siren | 4 | 10.00 | 8% | -20% | 22% | PASS | - |
| 1 | Edited By | 2 | 14.00 | 7% | -2% | 20% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Soft | Class | Conn | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edited By | 2 | 14 | x1724 | 2/10 | BM78>85 | Freedman | WATCH |
| 2 | Weigall Tiger | 1 | 10 | 121x | 0/7 | CL6>85 | Schweida | PASS |
| 3 | Slippin’ Jimmy | 6 | 15 | 2318x | 4/8 | BM85 | Vandyke | EW VALUE |
| 4 | Iron Man | 10 | 13 | 6x116 | 2/13 | BM82>85 | Osland | PASS |
| 5 | John Rambo | 7 | 4.20 | x4235 | 4/10 | BM85 | Gollan | PASS |
| 6 | Rhapsody Chic | 13 | 14 | 79x4 | 2/10 | BM88>85 | A&S Freedman | PASS |
| 7 | Ser Joh | 3 | 7.50 | 12823 | 1/10 | CL6>85 | Heathcote | PASS |
| 8 | Castillian | 8 | 8 | 1123x | 3/19 | BM85 | Gollan | PASS |
| 9 | Hermanita | 9 | 20 | 33241 | 3/13 | CL6>85 | Munce | PASS |
| 11 | Show Some Decorum | 11 | 23 | 62596 | 2/14 | CL6>85 | McLean | PASS |
| 12 | Earl Of Bantry | 5 | 20 | 3112 | 0/2 | BM70>85 | Maher | PASS |
| 13 | Super Duck | 14 | 31 | 6x654 | 2/10 | BM85 | Hemmings | PASS |
| 15 | Ludovisi | 12 | 26 | 5148x | 2/10 | BM80>85 | Gollan | PASS |
| 16 | Sultry Siren | 4 | 10 | 24x45 | 1/11 | BM78>85 | Heathcote | PASS |
| 18 | Streak Of Winning | 16 | 15 | 52x12 | 1/4 | BM70>85 | Currie | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: No standout speed figure holder - wide-open race on class. Slippin’ Jimmy’s 41% career SR and 83.68s last 1400m EF run competitive. Pace: MODERATE - enough early speed from John Rambo, Ser Joh, and Castillian to ensure genuine tempo. Mid-field stalkers advantaged. Class: Big class rise for Earl Of Bantry (BM70) and Streak Of Winning (BM70) makes them vulnerable. Slippin’ Jimmy at BM85 level with upside. Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Soft 7 with rain - track likely to deteriorate further. Wet-track form critical differentiator.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Slippin’ Jimmy is the clear value play at $15. The 5yo has a remarkable wet-track record (4/8 soft, 1/2 heavy = 50% SR on rain-affected) and a career 41% win rate from 17 starts. Third on this course 14 days ago over 1200m BM85 (0.65L margin), he now steps to his preferred 1400m where he’s 2/5. Vandyke stable in form. The market has him at $15 despite being a genuine top-4 contender on the conditions - qualifies across ALL THREE each-way value paths (A, B, C) with an EW score of 81.2. Place specialist score of 2.8x confirms strong place consistency (71% career place rate). John Rambo is the deserved favourite but grossly overbet at $4.20 in a 15-runner field on Soft 7.
KEY RISKS
- Stepping from 1200m to 1400m second-up - though has strong distance record (2/5)
- Barrier 6 mid-field in large field - needs clean run in transit
kelly: 1.4% | ew_ev: +62.6% | score: 81.2/100 | paths: A+B+C