Eagle Farm R2 | 2200m BM70
Sat 28 Feb | 1:47pm | 16r | Soft 7 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #15 WHATJEUDOIN’ @ $21 - 1.0u EW VALUE: #4 GUARDED OPTIMIST @ $27 - 0.8u EW
Oppose #1 Akkadian Emperor ($2.45) - 0/9 soft/heavy wins = STRONG UNDERLAY (-55.9%).
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Whatjeudoin’ | $21 | 52.0 | 8% | +68% | VALUE | 1.0u EW |
| 8 | Lovey Dovey | $7 | 50.5 | 13% | -9% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Guarded Optimist | $27 | 48.0 | 8% | +116% | VALUE | 0.8u EW |
| 1 | Akkadian Emperor | $2.45 | 38.0 | 18% | -56% | PASS | - |
| 6 | Fulmen Filou | $34 | 46.0 | 6% | +104% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Mr O’Reilly | $7.50 | 42.0 | 10% | -25% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Lenape Vibe | $6.50 | 40.0 | 10% | -35% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Caracoron | $46 | 40.0 | 7% | +222% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Prochester | $8.50 | 38.0 | 9% | -24% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Ring Bearer | $34 | 36.0 | 5% | - | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | Odds | Form | Wet | Pace | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akkadian Emperor | 6 | 63 | $2.45 | 21x93 | 0/9 | OK | Neutral | 38 | PASS |
| 2 | Justice Served | 11 | 59 | $81 | 44x78 | 2/10 | OK | Neutral | 18 | PASS |
| 3 | Ring Bearer | 8 | 59 | $34 | 94332 | 1/7 | OK | Neutral | 36 | PASS |
| 4 | Guarded Optimist | 4 | 58.5 | $27 | x7484 | 4/14 | OK | Neutral | 48 | VALUE |
| 5 | Caracoron | 12 | 58 | $46 | 2x857 | 3/9 | OK | Neutral | 40 | WATCH |
| 6 | Fulmen Filou | 13 | 58 | $34 | 14221 | 1/8 | GOOD | Neutral | 46 | WATCH |
| 7 | Lenape Vibe | 7 | 58 | $6.50 | 75633 | 2/14 | OK | Waller | 40 | WATCH |
| 8 | Lovey Dovey | 5 | 57.5 | $7 | 73351 | 2/5 | OK | Waller | 50.5 | WATCH |
| 9 | Prochester | 19 | 57.5 | $8.50 | x6621 | 1/7 | OK | Neutral | 38 | WATCH |
| 10 | Mr O’Reilly | 3 | 57 | $7.50 | 82324 | 1/6 | OK | Laming | 42 | WATCH |
| 11 | Bitoftheblarney | 10 | 56.5 | $26 | x5657 | 2/22 | OK | Waller | 28 | PASS |
| 13 | Sir Beveridge | 2 | 56 | $51 | 51315 | 0/2 | OK | Neutral | 22 | PASS |
| 15 | Whatjeudoin’ | 16 | 55.5 | $21 | 22126 | 4/21 | GOOD | Neutral | 52 | VALUE |
| 17 | Vancity | 9 | 53 | $27 | x5821 | 1/20 | OK | Currie | 30 | PASS |
| 18 | Papal Miss | 15 | 54 | $101 | x4884 | 1/33 | POOR | Neutral | 14 | PASS |
| 19 | Hell Follows | 1 | 52.5 | $46 | 82x43 | 0/14 | OK | Neutral | 24 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Akkadian Emperor has the best raw figures (won BM80 last start) but all on good tracks; no proven soft form translates here. Whatjeudoin’ and Lovey Dovey have the best recent winning times on soft ground. Pace: MODERATE scenario expected. Large field with several on-pacers (#1, #13, #9) should create an honest tempo. Mid-runners and closers get their chance over 2200m. Class: Akkadian Emperor dropping from BM80 but Soft 7 negates advantage. Whatjeudoin’ rising from BM58 off strong 2.5L win on soft - progressive. Guarded Optimist has 4 wins from 14 soft starts, all at this class level. Lovey Dovey up from BM65 after back-to-back wins. Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Rail position unknown. Soft 7 with rain = genuine wet track, favours proven wet-trackers.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#15 Whatjeudoin’ ($21 EW): The standout value play. Won last start at Ipswich on soft by 2.5L in a BM58 (135.22s/2180m), with a record of 4 wins from 21 soft starts (19%). Remarkable place consistency - 49% career place rate (24 placings from 37 starts). Six distance starts for 1 win. Rising in class from BM58 to BM70 is the knock, but the EW value at $21 is compelling: +68% edge on win, +50% EW EV, place specialist score of 3.22. Wide barrier (16) is manageable over 2200m with genuine tempo expected.
#4 Guarded Optimist ($27 EW): The wet track specialist at value odds. 4 wins from 14 soft starts (29%) vs 0/5 on good. Gets the inside barrier (4) in a 16-runner field. Last 3 runs all on good/soft surfaces show him building towards this. At $27, the edge is +116% with a strong EW EV of +98%. Has 4 starts at Eagle Farm for 0 wins which tempers enthusiasm, keeping this as a secondary play.
KEY RISKS
- Class rise for Whatjeudoin’ - jumping from BM58 to BM70 is a significant 12-point class rise; may find these too strong
- Akkadian Emperor’s class - despite 0/9 wet, class is king and he’s proven at BM80; a first soft win at short odds would be costly to oppose
- Track deterioration - if the Soft 7 moves to Heavy, the form guide reshuffles further; #5 Caracoron (2/2 heavy) becomes the danger
#15 kelly: 1.0u EW | ew_ev: +50% | score: 52/100 #4 kelly: 0.8u EW | ew_ev: +98% | score: 48/100 Source: sportsbetform.com.au