Flemington R10 | 2000m BM88
Sat 28 Feb | 5:35pm | 12r | Good 4 (Rain forecast)
ACTION
VALUE: #14 POLITELY DUN @ $15.00 - 0.63u EW VALUE: #3 REGAL LION @ $23.00 - 0.43u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | EW EV | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fiorenot | 13 | 3.70 | 23% | -14.9% | 57% | -9.5% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Ambassadorial | 5 | 3.40 | 20% | -32.0% | 47% | - | PASS | - |
| 10 | Xtra Rush | 10 | 5.00 | 15% | -25.0% | 42% | -21.0% | PASS | - |
| 14 | Politely Dun | 4 | 15.00 | 9% | +35.0% | 22% | +15.9% | VALUE | 0.63 |
| 3 | Regal Lion | 14 | 23.00 | 6% | +38.0% | 18% | +27.5% | VALUE | 0.43 |
| 8 | Sunsets | 7 | 9.00 | 9% | -19.0% | 22% | -26.2% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | C/D | Bias | Conn | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberfeldie Boy | 9 | 71 | 57x37 | Rise | 0/5 0/4 | - | Neutral | PASS |
| 2 | Foujita San | 12 | 41 | 578x | Level | 0/6 2/14 | - | Neutral | PASS |
| 3 | Regal Lion | 14 | 23 | 141363 | Drop | 0/2 3/18 | - | Neutral | VALUE |
| 4 | Dublin Journal | 6 | 61 | x648 | Level | 1/4 6/22 | - | Neutral | PASS |
| 6 | My Brothers Keeper | 2 | 23 | x638 | Rise | 0/14 1/14 | - | Neutral | PASS |
| 7 | Fiorenot | 13 | 3.70 | 232112 | Rise | 2/3 0/2 | - | Hot | WATCH |
| 8 | Sunsets | 7 | 9.00 | 99x336 | Rise | 0/6 1/10 | - | Neutral | PASS |
| 10 | Xtra Rush | 10 | 5.00 | 111x1 | Rise | 0/0 1/1 | - | Neutral | PASS |
| 11 | Ambassadorial | 5 | 3.40 | 557321 | Rise | 0/6 1/3 | - | Hot | PASS |
| 12 | Seafall | 8 | 11 | x75934 | Rise | 0/2 0/3 | - | Neutral | PASS |
| 14 | Politely Dun | 4 | 15 | 82445 | Rise | 1/8 2/7 | - | Neutral | VALUE |
| 15 | Georgie Get Mad | 3 | 18 | 936363 | Rise | 1/8 1/6 | - | Cold | WATCH |
Scratched: #5 Mr Monaco, #9 Tarvue, #13 Pantile Warrior
ANALYSIS
Speed: Fiorenot posts the best figures on recent form (Flemington 1800m wins in 107.83 and 108.44), but untested at this class level over 2000m. Xtra Rush only narrowly won a BM66 at 1800m (110.97) - figures modest for BM88. Pace: MODERATE shape expected. Xtra Rush and Fiorenot likely to sit forward, with Politely Dun and Regal Lion settling back. No dominant leader, genuine tempo unlikely, which slightly favours on-pace runners. Class: This is the crux. Ambassadorial (BM70), Fiorenot (BM70/78), and Xtra Rush (BM66) are all making significant class jumps. Regal Lion is the only runner DROPPING (from BM100). Politely Dun has solid BM78 form and C/D experience at Flemington. Bias: Neutral bias reported (LOW confidence). Rain forecast could shift conditions towards soft - Regal Lion (5 soft wins) and Politely Dun (4 soft places from 9 soft starts) handle wet ground.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Politely Dun ($15 EW) is the primary selection. He has the strongest course/distance profile in the field (1 win, 2 places from 7 starts at 2000m; 1 win from 8 at Flemington). His 2nd at Pakenham BM78 (soft) and 4th at Flemington 2000m BM78 last prep show he is competitive at this trip. The class rise from BM78 to BM88 is manageable, barrier 4 gives him a lovely run in transit, and Danny O’Brien is a capable trainer at Flemington. At $15, the market is too dismissive.
Regal Lion ($23 EW) is the secondary play. He ran 3rd in a BM100 at Caulfield (0.5L off the winner) just 27 days ago, making this a CLASS DROP. He has 3 wins from 18 starts at the 2000m distance and handles any ground (5 soft wins). The wide barrier 14 is the clear negative, but at $23 the price compensates. EW EV is +27.5%.
The market favourites are all making steep class jumps and are priced accordingly - we see no win value in any of the top 3 in the market.
KEY RISKS
- Rain could shift track to Soft - helps Regal Lion/Politely Dun but Fiorenot has limited wet form (0/1)
- Fiorenot’s 90% place rate may hold up despite the class rise - his consistency is exceptional
- Xtra Rush is an unknown quantity - unbeaten horses can defy class logic
EXPERT SUPPORT
Expert tips were limited (1 source checked in briefing). Web search found:
- Fiorenot and Xtra Rush backed by multiple sources
- Ambassadorial widely tipped as favourite
- Politely Dun mentioned in one preview at longer odds
Support: Fiorenot 50%, Xtra Rush 50%, Ambassadorial 50%, Sunsets 25%
politely dun: kelly 0.63% | ew_ev: +15.9% | score: 52/100 regal lion: kelly 0.43% | ew_ev: +27.5% | score: 48/100